Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico, United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (27 Oct 18:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.7 m 324 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.7 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico, United States145,348
+
Mexico145,099 
United States249 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 25 Oct 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 25 Oct 2021 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 26 Oct 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 26 Oct 2021 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 26 Oct 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 26 Oct 2021 18:00 68 -
- - - - - Mexico, United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

471 mm

Up to 710 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico177,117 
100-250 mmMexico529,224 
50-100 mmMexico6,997,354 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 25 Oct 2021 00:00 249 10 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 25 Oct 2021 06:00 215 180 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 25 Oct 2021 12:00 81 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 13 25 Oct 2021 18:00 59 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 14 26 Oct 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 26 Oct 2021 06:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 26 Oct 2021 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 26 Oct 2021 18:00 324 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Holly Beach, United States. This height is estimated for 27 Oct 2021 18:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mUnited States67 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico, United States8,684
+
Mexico3,674 
United States5,009 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
27 Oct 2021 18:45 Holly Beach United States  0.7
27 Oct 2021 18:45 Cameron United States  0.7
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Constance Beach United States  0.7
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Peveto Beach United States  0.7
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.7
27 Oct 2021 18:00 Sabine United States  0.5
27 Oct 2021 18:00 Sabine Pass United States  0.5
27 Oct 2021 17:45 Beach City United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 17:45 Smith Point United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 17:45 Oak Island United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 17:45 Anahuac United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 17:45 Cedar Point United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 17:15 High Island United States  0.3
28 Oct 2021 20:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
28 Oct 2021 20:30 La Choya Mexico  0.3
27 Oct 2021 16:30 Caplen United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 16:30 Gilchrist United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 16:30 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 13:30 Carancahua United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 13:30 El Campo Club Community United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 13:30 Camp Hulen United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 13:30 Palacios United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 13:30 Collegeport United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 13:30 Simpsonville United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 13:30 Citrus Grove United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Sixmile United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Port Lavaca United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Alamo Beach United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Point Comfort United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Magnolia Beach United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Olivia United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Weedhaven United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Port Alto United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 16:30 Crystal Beach United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 16:30 Patton United States  0.3
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Morgan's Point United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Red Bluff United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Seabrook United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Morgan Point United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Baytown United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 18:30 Pelly United States  0.2
28 Oct 2021 20:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 00:45 Playa Azul Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 00:45 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 18:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:45 Estes United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:45 Rockport United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:45 Copano Village United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:45 Fulton United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:45 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:45 Lamar United States  0.2
25 Oct 2021 00:30 Calvario Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 00:30 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 16:30 Flake United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 16:30 Elmgrove United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 16:45 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 16:45 Fort Travis United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 03:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 03:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 11:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 11:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
28 Oct 2021 00:00 El Martillo United States  0.2
28 Oct 2021 00:00 Yarborough United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:15 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:15 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:15 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:15 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 14:15 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
25 Oct 2021 06:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 07:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 07:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Bayview United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Bacliff United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Nadeau United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Texas City Junction United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Bayou Vista United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 San Leon United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Texas City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Virginia Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Galveston United States  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 04:30 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 04:30 El Roble Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Webster United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Clear Lake City United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Nassau Bay United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Kilkare United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Lakeside United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Taylor Lake United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 La Porte United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 El Lago United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Clear Lake Shores United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Kemah United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Shoreacres United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Bayside Terrace United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Todville United States  0.2
25 Oct 2021 04:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 04:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
29 Oct 2021 09:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 12:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 12:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 06:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 05:15 Lagunillas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 05:15 Joluta Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 06:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 07:45 Arista Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 07:45 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
29 Oct 2021 08:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 11:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 11:15 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 21:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 21:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 01:15 Acapulco Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 04:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 10:30 Maudlowe United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 10:30 Tivoli United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 10:30 Spanish Village United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 10:30 Austwell United States  0.2
27 Oct 2021 10:30 Seadrift United States  0.2
25 Oct 2021 12:45 La Playa Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 17:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 17:00 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
29 Oct 2021 09:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 07:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 16:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 05:30 Chula Mexico  0.2
27 Oct 2021 11:30 Indianola United States  0.2
25 Oct 2021 04:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 15:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 04:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 14:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 14:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 14:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 17:45 Pesqueria Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 17:45 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 17:45 La Majada Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 05:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 03:45 Marmol Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 03:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 06:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 04:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 21:30 Garrapateras Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 21:15 Santa Maria Xandani Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 21:15 Costa Rica Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 15:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 11:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:45 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Hoskins United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Peterson Landing United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Port Morris United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Sea Isle United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Hitchcock United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 06:45 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 05:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 05:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 02:00 Nuxco Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 01:45 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 01:45 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 01:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Chamela Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2021 05:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2021 05:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 04:15 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 22:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Corpus Christi United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 North Beach United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Gardendale United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Doyle United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Orange Grove United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Peary Place United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Portland United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Gregory United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Ingleside United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
26 Oct 2021 04:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:15 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:15 Port Aransas United States  0.1
25 Oct 2021 21:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Matagorda United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 12:00 Chinquapin United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 02:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 02:15 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 02:15 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
28 Oct 2021 02:15 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
26 Oct 2021 05:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2021 05:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2021 20:30 Las Barrillas Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2021 20:30 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:45 Barron Mexico  0.1
26 Oct 2021 04:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 01:45 El Marques Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 08:00 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Quintana United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Surfside United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Mims United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:30 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
29 Oct 2021 08:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
29 Oct 2021 08:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 16:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 01:00 Maruata Mexico  0.1
26 Oct 2021 04:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 16:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
26 Oct 2021 21:45 City Arroyo United States  0.1
26 Oct 2021 21:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
26 Oct 2021 21:45 Buena Vista United States  0.1
26 Oct 2021 21:30 Mauricio Gutierrez Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:45 Hoskins United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:45 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:45 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
27 Oct 2021 06:45 Freeport United States  0.1
29 Oct 2021 09:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
27 Oct 2021 10:45 Gulf Park United States  0.1