Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
13 Oct 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Oct 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico866,892 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 13 Oct 2021 06:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

404 mm

Up to 870 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico24,732 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico840,395
+
United States133,250 
Mexico707,145 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico2,318,281
+
United States1,768,386 
Mexico549,894 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 153 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 208 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 13 Oct 2021 06:00 403 370 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico, United States43,569
+
Mexico40,520 
United States3,049 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 22:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Dimas Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 23:15 La Gloria Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 23:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Barron Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Estes United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Rockport United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Copano Village United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Fulton United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Lamar United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 22:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 01:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 21:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 21:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 22:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 North Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Doyle United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Portland United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Gregory United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Ingleside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Matagorda United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Chinquapin United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Carancahua United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Palacios United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Collegeport United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Simpsonville United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:30 Loreto Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Indianola United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Olivia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Weedhaven United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Port Alto United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 04:45 Peary Place United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 04:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:00 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 07:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Port Aransas United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 San Pedro United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Wilmington United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Signal Hill United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Belmont Shore United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Surfside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Seal Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Huntington Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Las Flores United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Castellammare United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Pacific Palisades United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Santa Monica United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Sawtelle United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Marina del Rey United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Playa del Rey United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Alsace United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 El Segundo United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Manhattan Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Hermosa Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Clifton United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Redondo Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rolling Hills United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Malibu United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Monte Nido United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Rosario Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 21:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Spanish Village United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Austwell United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Long Mott United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 06:15 Seadrift United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Two Harbors United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Avalon United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 Buena Vista United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Newport Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Bay Shores United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Ayutla Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Balboa United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Top of the World United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 South Laguna United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:15 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:15 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 La Jolla United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 The Muirlands United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Azure Vista United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Mission Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Easter Cross United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Roseville United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Loma Portal United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 San Diego United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Coronado United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Boal United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 San Clemente United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Agra United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Las Flores United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Stuart United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Oceanside United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Carlsbad United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Ponto United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Leucadia United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Encinitas United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Solana Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Del Mar United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Sorrento United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 08:15 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 14:00 Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 21:45 Mirador Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Yarborough United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 14:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 22:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 22:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 05:00 El Martillo United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 16:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 21:15 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Encino Solo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1