Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
13 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (14 Oct 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 90 km/h 0.4 m 203 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

Up to 180 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico178,019 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 7 12 Oct 2021 12:00 79 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 8 13 Oct 2021 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 13 Oct 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmUnited States4,039 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,865,434
+
United States1,834,490 
Mexico30,944 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico13,162,139
+
United States9,108,959 
Mexico4,053,179 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 215 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 12 Oct 2021 00:00 105 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 12 Oct 2021 12:00 160 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 8 13 Oct 2021 00:00 241 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 13 Oct 2021 12:00 314 1.9 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Gloria, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Oct 2021 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Oct 2021 03:15 La Gloria Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 21:45 Matagorda United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 21:45 Chinquapin United States  0.4
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Spanish Village United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Austwell United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Seadrift United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Estes United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Rockport United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Shell Ridge United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Copano Village United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Fulton United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Holiday Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Lamar United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Florida Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Corpus Christi United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 North Beach United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Gardendale United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Doyle United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Orange Grove United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Portland United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Gregory United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Ingleside United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 21:30 Carancahua United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 21:30 El Campo Club Community United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 21:30 Camp Hulen United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 21:30 Palacios United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 21:30 Collegeport United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 21:30 Simpsonville United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 21:30 Citrus Grove United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Dimas Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Indianola United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Olivia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Weedhaven United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Port Alto United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 01:45 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 01:45 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 01:45 Long Mott United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Buena Vista United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Holly Beach United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Isabel United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 12:00 South Padre Island United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 13:45 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 13:45 Port Aransas United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Ligui Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Tripui Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:30 Yarborough United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
16 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 17:15 Magnolia Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:30 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 City Arroyo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 12:00 El Martillo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:30 La Choya Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Molino Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1