Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
11 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Oct 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 0.5 m 163 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 810 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Mexico1,673 
CAT. 2Mexico4,461 
CAT. 1Mexico7,857 
Tropical StormMexico809,871 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 212 10 thousand
- - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico21,419 
100-250 mmMexico741,504 
50-100 mmMexico280,689 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 539 760 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Perihuete, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 21:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 21:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 21:15 Dimas Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Florida Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 21:15 La Boca Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Estes United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Rockport United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Copano Village United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Fulton United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Lamar United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 23:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 North Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Doyle United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Portland United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Gregory United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Matagorda United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Chinquapin United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Ingleside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:45 Barron Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Carancahua United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Palacios United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Collegeport United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Simpsonville United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:45 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 22:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 22:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Indianola United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Olivia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Weedhaven United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Port Alto United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:30 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 01:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 04:45 Peary Place United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 04:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 07:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Port Aransas United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Riviera United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Vattman United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Orange Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 22:45 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 San Pedro United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Wilmington United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Signal Hill United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Surfside United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Seal Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:00 Buena Vista United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Malibu United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Monte Nido United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Las Flores United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Castellammare United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Pacific Palisades United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Santa Monica United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Sawtelle United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Marina del Rey United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Playa del Rey United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Alsace United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 El Segundo United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Manhattan Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Hermosa Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Clifton United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:15 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 03:15 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 04:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 07:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 08:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Two Harbors United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Avalon United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Roseville United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 San Diego United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Coronado United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Boal United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 05:00 Spanish Village United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Newport Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Bay Shores United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 La Jolla United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 The Muirlands United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Mission Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Easter Cross United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:45 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 08:00 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Balboa United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Top of the World United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 South Laguna United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 20:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Maudlowe United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Tivoli United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Austwell United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Long Mott United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Seadrift United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 San Clemente United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Yarborough United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 04:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 07:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 05:00 El Martillo United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Agra United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Las Flores United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Stuart United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Oceanside United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Carlsbad United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Ponto United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Leucadia United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Encinitas United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Solana Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Del Mar United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:30 Sorrento United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 07:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:15 La Florida Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 17:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 23:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1