Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
10 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (10 Oct 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 72 km/h 0.2 m 133 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 0.4 m 440 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

130 km/h

Up to 1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico1,011,221
+
United States819,668 
Mexico191,552 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 191 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico195 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 460 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Estes, United States. This height is estimated for 10 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Estes United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Rockport United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Copano Village United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Fulton United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Lamar United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 13:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 North Beach United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Doyle United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Portland United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Gregory United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:00 Carancahua United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:00 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:00 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:00 Palacios United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:00 Collegeport United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:00 Simpsonville United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:00 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Ingleside United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 17:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 17:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:45 Indianola United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:45 Olivia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:45 Weedhaven United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:45 Port Alto United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 12:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 16:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 18:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 12:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 17:30 Matagorda United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 17:15 Chinquapin United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 12:30 Peary Place United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 12:30 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 17:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 17:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 17:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 17:00 Buena Vista United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Port Aransas United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 18:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 17:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1