Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21
in Oman
30 Sep 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (30 Sep 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.5 m 130 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 0.8 m 399 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 950 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAfghanistan, Iran, Pakistan953,756
+
Afghanistan73,771 
Iran282,961 
Pakistan597,023 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Sep 2021 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Sep 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Sep 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Sep 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Sep 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Sep 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 25 Sep 2021 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Sep 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 26 Sep 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 26 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 26 Sep 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Afghanistan, Iran
GREEN 12 27 Sep 2021 00:00 72 -
- - - - - Afghanistan, Iran
GREEN 13 27 Sep 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Afghanistan, Iran
GREEN 14 27 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 27 Sep 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Sep 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Sep 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 28 Sep 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 28 Sep 2021 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 29 Sep 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 29 Sep 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 29 Sep 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 29 Sep 2021 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 30 Sep 2021 00:00 90 -
- - - - - Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndia, Pakistan17,678,699
+
India16,604,206 
Pakistan1,074,492 
50-100 mmNepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, China, Thailand105,896,372
+
Nepal7,486,372 
India82,307,021 
Bangladesh628,842 
Myanmar422,306 
Pakistan14,525,229 
China148,936 
Thailand377,663 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Sep 2021 06:00 100 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 24 Sep 2021 12:00 34 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 24 Sep 2021 18:00 98 -
- - - - - Myanmar
Blue 4 25 Sep 2021 00:00 231 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Sep 2021 06:00 195 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 25 Sep 2021 12:00 161 -
- - - - - Thailand
Blue 7 25 Sep 2021 18:00 139 3 thousand
- - - - Thailand, Myanmar
Blue 8 26 Sep 2021 00:00 253 -
- - - - - Myanmar
Blue 9 26 Sep 2021 06:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 26 Sep 2021 12:00 156 -
- - - - - Myanmar, Thailand
Blue 11 26 Sep 2021 18:00 160 1.1 million
- - - - India, Myanmar
Blue 12 27 Sep 2021 00:00 143 20 thousand
- - - - India, Thailand, Myanmar
Blue 13 27 Sep 2021 06:00 55 -
- - - - - India
Blue 14 27 Sep 2021 12:00 45 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 27 Sep 2021 18:00 85 -
- - - - - India
Blue 16 28 Sep 2021 00:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 28 Sep 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - India
Blue 18 28 Sep 2021 12:00 171 770 thousand
- - - - India
Blue 19 28 Sep 2021 18:00 141 290 thousand
- - - - India
Blue 20 29 Sep 2021 00:00 147 2 million
- - - - India
Blue 21 29 Sep 2021 06:00 99 -
- - - - - India
Blue 22 29 Sep 2021 12:00 92 -
- - - - - India
Blue 23 29 Sep 2021 18:00 95 -
- - - - - India
Blue 24 30 Sep 2021 00:00 266 17.7 million
- - - - Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, China, Thailand




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Asarsa, India. This height is estimated for 30 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Asarsa India  0.5
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Harinagar India  0.4
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Wadgam India  0.4
30 Sep 2021 05:45 Ghogha India  0.4
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Kambhat India  0.4
30 Sep 2021 05:30 Dahej India  0.4
30 Sep 2021 05:15 Tankari India  0.4
30 Sep 2021 05:15 Muler India  0.4
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Kavi India  0.3
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Sarod India  0.3
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Bhagva India  0.3
30 Sep 2021 04:00 Damka India  0.3
30 Sep 2021 04:00 Olpad India  0.3
30 Sep 2021 04:00 Kotada India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:30 Surat India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:15 Jalalpur India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:15 Mahuver India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Jafarabad India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Kathiwadar Bandar India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:30 Nausari India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:30 Navsari India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:30 Bilimora India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Mahuva India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:15 Dharasana India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:15 Valsad India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Rohisa India  0.2
30 Sep 2021 02:00 Udvada India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:45 Dharabandar India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:30 Gangra India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:30 Kakdwip India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:30 Belpukur India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:30 Kulpi India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 01:45 Daman India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:45 Delvada India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:45 Nawabandar India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:30 Namkhana India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Sidongyaung Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Thechaung Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Kanmaw Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Bemagyauk Ywa Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Mawgaungdon Ywa Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Medaw Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Tawbya Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Thedangyi Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:00 Leiktaung Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:00 Awebindat Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 01:30 Maroli India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:00 Kyatchaung Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:00 Yedwindaung Ywa Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 00:45 Umbargam India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:00 Kabyachaung Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:00 Yengangyi Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Porbandar India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Adodar India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 01:30 Bordi India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 00:45 Gholvad India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Tanzon Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Taung-pi Ywa Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Kalonga Ywa Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:45 Sadeinchaungoya Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Dangarvadi India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Ratia India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Gorser India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:00 Miyani India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Tarapur India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Malyan India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Boisar India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Sakhare India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Mumbai India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Asumumbay India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Mandve India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Uran India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Trombay India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:30 Taloje India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:00 Kadin Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:00 Shangan Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:30 Madhi India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:30 Bhogat India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 03:30 Lamba India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Shirgaon India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Palghar India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 06:00 Mahim India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:15 Taungkamet Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:15 Hangapru Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 04:15 Karathuri Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 05:45 Kotra Nes India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 00:00 New Kandla India  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:30 Ale-hman Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:30 Bokpyin Myanmar  0.1
30 Sep 2021 02:30 Atwin Bokpyin Myanmar  0.1