Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for CEMPAKA-21
in China

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Vietnam, Laos
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (23 Jul 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 0.3 m 593 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 1.2 m 746 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

137 km/h

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormVietnam, Laos85,280
+
Vietnam84,828 
Laos452 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 18 Jul 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 19 Jul 2021 00:00 86 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 3 19 Jul 2021 06:00 101 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 4 19 Jul 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 5 19 Jul 2021 18:00 122 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 6 20 Jul 2021 00:00 130 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 7 20 Jul 2021 06:00 137 Few people
- - - - China
GREEN 8 20 Jul 2021 12:00 137 40 thousand
- - - - China
GREEN 9 20 Jul 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 10 21 Jul 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 11 21 Jul 2021 06:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 21 Jul 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 21 Jul 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 22 Jul 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 22 Jul 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 22 Jul 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 22 Jul 2021 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 18 23 Jul 2021 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 19 23 Jul 2021 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 23 Jul 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmLaos1,184 
250-500 mmVietnam, Laos, China, Thailand393,026
+
Vietnam5,052 
China22 
Laos209,781 
Thailand178,171 
100-250 mmVietnam, Laos, China, Thailand6,880,705
+
Vietnam1,707,626 
China291,937 
Laos1,700,419 
Thailand3,180,721 
50-100 mmVietnam, China, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia7,495,083
+
Vietnam3,494,989 
China1,024,645 
Laos667,810 
Thailand2,307,498 
Cambodia139 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 18 Jul 2021 18:00 150 -
- - - - - China, Hong Kong
Blue 2 19 Jul 2021 00:00 178 -
- - - - - China, Macao
Blue 3 19 Jul 2021 06:00 138 -
- - - - - China
Blue 4 19 Jul 2021 12:00 274 -
- - - - - China
Blue 5 19 Jul 2021 18:00 277 5 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 6 20 Jul 2021 00:00 290 550 thousand
- - - - China, Macao
Blue 7 20 Jul 2021 06:00 272 Few people
- - - - China, Hong Kong
Blue 8 20 Jul 2021 12:00 189 440 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 9 20 Jul 2021 18:00 228 630 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 10 21 Jul 2021 00:00 328 170 thousand
- - - - China, Vietnam
Blue 11 21 Jul 2021 06:00 111 3 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 12 21 Jul 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - China
Blue 13 21 Jul 2021 18:00 175 230 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 14 22 Jul 2021 00:00 285 9 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 15 22 Jul 2021 06:00 146 2 thousand
- - - - China, Vietnam
Blue 16 22 Jul 2021 12:00 139 3 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, China
Blue 17 22 Jul 2021 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 18 23 Jul 2021 00:00 147 -
- - - - - China, Vietnam, Laos
Blue 19 23 Jul 2021 06:00 122 690 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, China
Blue 20 23 Jul 2021 12:00 593 7.3 million
- - Vietnam, China, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in San Shah, China. This height is estimated for 23 Jul 2021 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jul 2021 13:00 San Shah China  0.3
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Gaoshan China  0.3
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Ta-ch'iu China  0.3
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Beicuo China  0.3
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Guanjing China  0.3
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Cao Yu China  0.3
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Qingfeng China  0.3
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Pingtan China  0.3
26 Jul 2021 10:45 Sha-fan-chieh China  0.3
26 Jul 2021 10:45 Jinxiang China  0.3
26 Jul 2021 10:45 Pucheng China  0.3
25 Jul 2021 01:15 Shacheng China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:15 Xiaguan China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:15 Huang-ch'i China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Xiahu China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Da'ao China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Changchun China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Luxia China  0.2
23 Jul 2021 13:00 Houtian China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Yacheng China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Sansha China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Wuqu China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:30 Bili China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:30 Chien-chiang China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:30 Anhai China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:30 Tung-ch'ung China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:30 Xinan China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 01:30 Ting-hai China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Ch'ang-t'an-wo Taiwan  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Tung-tai China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Baisheng China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Mabi China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Guanban China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Langqi China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Changmen China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Fengwo China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Yunlong China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Wangchuan China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Fengting China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Dawu China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Fengwei China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Hsiao-tso China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Zhongmen China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Tantou China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Chin-feng China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Wuhang China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Chiang-k'ou China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Daitou China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Tangbian China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Shicheng China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Jiangjing China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Gangtou China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Yuxi China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 04:45 Longtian China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 06:45 P'u-hsi China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 06:45 P'u-hsi-ch'eng China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Meizhou China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 05:15 Nanri China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 05:15 Fuye China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Chiang-t'ien China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 02:00 Chang-chiang China  0.2
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Dongsha China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Lingchuan China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Hushi China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 01:45 Guhuai China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 05:30 Pinghai China  0.1
24 Jul 2021 10:45 Bailong China  0.1
24 Jul 2021 10:45 Beimu China  0.1
24 Jul 2021 10:45 Yong'an China  0.1
24 Jul 2021 10:45 Shankou China  0.1
24 Jul 2021 10:45 Yingluo China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Shih-shih China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Yakou China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Yongning China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Shihu China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Dongyuan China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Hsiang-chih China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Zhangban China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Qian'an China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 06:45 Chongwu China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 15:45 Taiping China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 15:45 Xianmai China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 15:45 Longshe China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 15:45 Dongli China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Lianhe China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Ch'ing-hsu Taiwan  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Shijing China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Chin-men Tao Taiwan  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Yang-chai Taiwan  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Anhai China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Tung-shih China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Weitou China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Chin-ching China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 15:45 Tung-li China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 15:45 Dongshan China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 07:15 Chin-men Taiwan  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Fugong China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Haicang China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Guankou China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Gangwei China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Songyu China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Hsing-lin China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Xucuo China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Gulangyu China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Xiamen China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Dianqian China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Jiangtou China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Hecuo China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:00 Liuwudian China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:15 Chen-hai China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:15 Daomei China  0.1
25 Jul 2021 08:15 Zhenhai China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Huangge China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Min-chung China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Wan-ch'ing-sha China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Jiang'ouwei China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Cheng'anwei China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Fumunchai China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Fumuntschai China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Baihao China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Taiping China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Sha-ching China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:30 Heping China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:00 Siwei China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:00 Huanglong China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:00 Houzhai China  0.1
23 Jul 2021 12:00 Zhelin China  0.1