Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
02 Feb 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (02 Feb 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 50 km/h 0.4 m 14 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 94 km/h 1.0 m 466 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia395 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia48 
100-250 mmAustralia4,219 
50-100 mmAustralia8,219 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 19 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 20 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 19 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 354 4 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Point Samson, Australia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Feb 2021 04:15 Point Samson Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 04:15 Cossack Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 13:00 Dampier Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 13:00 Karratha Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Mardie Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Wickham Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 05:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 18:45 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 18:45 Useless Loop Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:45 Learmonth Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Onslow Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 00:00 Denham Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 08:15 Gregory Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 08:15 Lynton Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 23:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 08:15 Horrocks Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Exmouth Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 17:00 Milyeannup Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 00:00 Shark Bay Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 00:00 Monkey Mia Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 04:15 Warroora Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 22:30 Quobba Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:15 Glenroy Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 17:00 Augusta Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Cardabia Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 21:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 18:45 Guring Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 18:45 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 00:00 Carrarang Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 00:00 Tamala Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 02:45 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:45 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Dalyellup Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Bunbury Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Binningup Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Picton Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Eaton Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Burragenup Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Australind Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 17:30 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 08:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 08:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:00 Pringgabaja Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:00 Lombok Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:00 Vasse Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:00 Broadwater Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:00 Busselton Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:00 Wonnerup Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:00 Ludlow Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 08:15 Waggrakine Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Myalup Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:30 Kalbarri Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 17:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 07:45 Geraldton Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:00 Sunut Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 01:45 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 01:45 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 00:00 Nanga Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 15:15 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 15:15 Sumur Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 15:15 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 15:15 Babakancibeber Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:30 Kolitjaah Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:30 Tjiteureup Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:30 Labuhan Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:30 Kaduperasi Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 03:15 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:00 Djareweh Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:15 Kekatang Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:15 Menango Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:15 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:15 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:15 Tarahan Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:00 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:00 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:15 Dunsborough Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 16:15 Quindalup Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 17:00 Hamelin Bay Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:00 Sembelie Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:45 Brassan Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:15 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 11:15 Kalianda Indonesia  0.1