Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
01 Feb 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (01 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.3 m 15 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 86 km/h 1.3 m 296 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

86 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia82 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia1,160,265 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia45,545,422
+
Indonesia45,522,465 
Australia22,957 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 169 1.2 million
- - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Point Samson, Australia. This height is estimated for 01 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Point Samson Australia  0.3
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Cossack Australia  0.3
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Wickham Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Karratha Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 13:15 Dampier Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:15 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:15 Pringgabaja Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:15 Lombok Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:30 Milyeannup Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:30 Vasse Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:30 Broadwater Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:30 Busselton Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:30 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:30 Ludlow Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:45 Warroora Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Mardie Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Chilachap Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Adipala Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Binangoen Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 17:00 Learmonth Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Guring Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:45 Cardabia Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Bunbury Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Binningup Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Myalup Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Eaton Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Burragenup Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Australind Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 14:15 Onslow Australia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:15 Sunut Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 12:15 Djareweh Indonesia  0.2
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Picton Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 15:15 Dalyellup Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 16:15 Exmouth Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:15 Sembelie Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 14:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 17:45 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 17:45 Useless Loop Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:15 Laboean Mapin Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 17:00 Denham Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 13:00 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:00 Petanahan Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 15:45 Carnarvon Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 15:30 Dunsborough Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 15:30 Quindalup Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 15:00 Quobba Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 14:45 Glenroy Australia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:45 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:45 Sumur Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:45 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 12:45 Babakancibeber Indonesia  0.1
01 Feb 2021 14:30 Augusta Australia  0.1