Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (06 Feb 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 61 km/h 1.3 m 17 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 86 km/h 1.3 m 296 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

86 km/h

Up to 240 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia241261 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 03 Feb 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Feb 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 04 Feb 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 04 Feb 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 04 Feb 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Feb 2021 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Christmas Island, Australia21940733
+
Indonesia21939308 
Christmas Island1386 
Australia39 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 18 2 thousand - - - - - - Australia
Blue 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 03 Feb 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 04 Feb 2021 00:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 04 Feb 2021 06:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 04 Feb 2021 12:00 19 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 04 Feb 2021 18:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 05 Feb 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.3m in Hamelin Pool, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2021 06:15 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.3
06 Feb 2021 06:15 Hamelin Australia  1.3
06 Feb 2021 06:15 Gladstone Australia  1.1
06 Feb 2021 05:45 Nanga Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 05:45 Carrarang Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 05:45 Tamala Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 05:45 Shark Bay Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 05:45 Monkey Mia Australia  0.8
07 Feb 2021 19:30 Vasse Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 19:30 Broadwater Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 19:30 Busselton Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 19:30 Wonnerup Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 19:30 Ludlow Australia  0.7
06 Feb 2021 07:00 Useless Loop Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Dunsborough Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Quindalup Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 07:00 Denham Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Gunyulgup Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Yallingup Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 02:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Dalyellup Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Bunbury Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 18:45 Picton Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 18:45 Eaton Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 18:45 Australind Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 18:45 Binningup Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 18:45 Burragenup Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 18:45 Myalup Australia  0.5
06 Feb 2021 18:15 Kalbarri Australia  0.5
06 Feb 2021 18:45 Gregory Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 04:00 Denison Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 04:00 Port Denison Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 04:00 Dongara Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 03:15 Greenough Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 04:30 Illawong Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 02:45 Geraldton Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 02:45 Drummond Cove Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 02:45 Popes Landing Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 02:45 Waggrakine Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 02:45 Horrocks Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 04:45 Coolimba Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 03:15 Lynton Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Milyeannup Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 23:00 Gracetown Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Falcon Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Mandurah Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Warnbro Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Peelhurst Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Singleton Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Karnup Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 04:45 Leeman Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 23:30 Augusta Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 13:45 Green Head Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 13:45 Jurien Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 23:30 Hamelin Bay Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 10:15 Point Samson Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 10:15 Cossack Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Safety Bay Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 17:30 Rockingham Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 13:30 Cervantes Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 10:45 Mardie Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 10:00 Dampier Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 10:00 Karratha Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Fremantle Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 North Beach Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Scarborough Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Mosman Park Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Cottesloe Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Coogee Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Swanbourne Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Claremont Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Spearwood Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:15 Bicton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 14:00 Lancelin Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 10:00 Wickham Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 14:00 Quobba Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 16:15 Wattleup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 14:00 Seabird Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 10:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:30 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 23:30 Quinns Rock Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 14:15 Guilderton Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2021 00:00 Two Rocks Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2021 00:00 Yanchep Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 14:15 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 04:00 Learmonth Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 03:45 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 03:15 Warroora Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 03:30 Onslow Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 03:30 Cardabia Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 04:45 Exmouth Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 01:45 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 04:30 Glenroy Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 03:30 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 03:15 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1