Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (06 Feb 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 83 km/h 1.1 m 275 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 83 km/h 1.1 m 444 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

83 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Feb 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 03 Feb 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 03 Feb 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 04 Feb 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia803 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia1780253
+
Indonesia1779710 
Australia543 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Christmas Island, Australia13749097
+
Indonesia13672059 
Christmas Island1526 
Australia75512 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 12:00 13 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Feb 2021 00:00 13 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 03 Feb 2021 00:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 03 Feb 2021 12:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 04 Feb 2021 00:00 275 1.8 million
- - - Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Hamelin Pool, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2021 03:15 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.1
06 Feb 2021 03:15 Hamelin Australia  1.1
06 Feb 2021 03:00 Gladstone Australia  0.9
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Carrarang Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Tamala Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 03:15 Nanga Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 01:45 Shark Bay Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 01:45 Monkey Mia Australia  0.6
05 Feb 2021 21:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.5
05 Feb 2021 21:00 Useless Loop Australia  0.5
05 Feb 2021 23:30 Denham Australia  0.5
04 Feb 2021 04:30 Point Samson Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 04:30 Cossack Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 04:45 Dampier Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 04:45 Karratha Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 04:30 Wickham Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 15:15 Kalbarri Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 22:30 Carnarvon Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 16:45 Gregory Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 17:00 Lynton Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 03:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 04:45 Mardie Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 13:30 Quobba Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 16:45 Horrocks Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 13:15 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 15:45 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Geraldton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 07:30 Learmonth Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 06:00 Onslow Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 15:45 Warroora Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 04:15 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 16:00 Cardabia Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Greenough Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 00:45 Guring Indonesia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 00:45 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 04:45 Glenroy Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 00:15 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 06:30 Exmouth Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Dongara Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 04:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Denison Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 00:00 Port Denison Australia  0.1