Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
03 Feb 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (03 Feb 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.3 m 16 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 86 km/h 1.3 m 296 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

86 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia652 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 03 Feb 2021 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia778,987
+
Indonesia778,860 
Australia127 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia49,603,628
+
Indonesia49,602,742 
Australia886 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 18 2 thousand - - - - - - Australia
Blue 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 03 Feb 2021 18:00 211 780 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Point Samson, Australia. This height is estimated for 03 Feb 2021 20:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Feb 2021 20:45 Point Samson Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:45 Cossack Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:15 Dampier Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:15 Karratha Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 22:00 Mardie Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 21:00 Wickham Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 21:00 Onslow Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 20:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 23:00 Learmonth Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 00:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 22:30 Exmouth Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 23:45 Cardabia Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 20:15 Glenroy Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 00:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 19:45 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 23:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 23:45 Quobba Australia  0.1