Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
03 Feb 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (06 Feb 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 61 km/h 0.8 m 17 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 94 km/h 1.0 m 466 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia560 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia04 
100-250 mmAustralia298 
50-100 mmAustralia254 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 19 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 20 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 19 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 305 Few people
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Hamelin Pool, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2021 04:15 Hamelin Pool Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 04:15 Hamelin Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 03:00 Carrarang Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 03:00 Tamala Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 04:00 Gladstone Australia  0.7
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Nanga Australia  0.7
06 Feb 2021 03:15 Shark Bay Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 03:15 Monkey Mia Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 03:15 Useless Loop Australia  0.6
05 Feb 2021 22:45 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.5
06 Feb 2021 02:45 Denham Australia  0.5
04 Feb 2021 03:00 Point Samson Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 03:00 Cossack Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 06:00 Kalbarri Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 06:00 Gregory Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 06:30 Lynton Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 02:45 Wickham Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 06:45 Horrocks Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 18:00 Dampier Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 18:00 Karratha Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 07:00 Geraldton Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 07:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 07:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 07:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 18:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 20:45 Carnarvon Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 16:45 Mardie Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 13:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 13:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 11:45 Greenough Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 12:00 Dongara Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 12:00 Denison Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2021 12:00 Port Denison Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 17:45 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 13:30 Cardabia Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 18:30 Onslow Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 06:15 Learmonth Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 13:30 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 02:15 Quobba Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 13:15 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 18:30 Glenroy Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 13:00 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 12:00 Exmouth Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2021 11:45 Illawong Australia  0.1