Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
31 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (06 Feb 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 68 km/h 0.0 m 19 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 94 km/h 1.0 m 466 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

94 km/h

Up to 330 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia328,437 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmAustralia56,571 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 337 2 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Hamelin Pool, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2021 04:00 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 04:00 Hamelin Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 04:45 Gladstone Australia  0.9
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Carrarang Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Tamala Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 04:15 Nanga Australia  0.8
07 Feb 2021 20:45 Vasse Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 20:45 Broadwater Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 20:45 Busselton Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 20:45 Wonnerup Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 20:45 Ludlow Australia  0.7
05 Feb 2021 21:30 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.7
05 Feb 2021 21:30 Useless Loop Australia  0.7
06 Feb 2021 04:30 Shark Bay Australia  0.7
06 Feb 2021 04:30 Monkey Mia Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 21:00 Dunsborough Australia  0.7
07 Feb 2021 21:00 Quindalup Australia  0.7
05 Feb 2021 21:30 Denham Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Gunyulgup Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Yallingup Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Dalyellup Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Bunbury Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Picton Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Eaton Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Australind Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Binningup Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 20:30 Burragenup Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 20:15 Myalup Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2021 01:15 Geraldton Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:15 Drummond Cove Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:15 Popes Landing Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:15 Waggrakine Australia  0.4
06 Feb 2021 16:15 Kalbarri Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 21:30 Gracetown Australia  0.4
08 Feb 2021 00:30 Milyeannup Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 03:15 Denison Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 03:15 Port Denison Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 03:15 Dongara Australia  0.4
06 Feb 2021 16:00 Gregory Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 02:30 Greenough Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 03:30 Illawong Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:30 Horrocks Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 20:00 Falcon Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 20:00 Mandurah Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 20:00 Warnbro Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 20:00 Peelhurst Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 20:00 Singleton Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 20:00 Karnup Australia  0.4
08 Feb 2021 00:15 Augusta Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 00:15 Lynton Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 08:00 Coolimba Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 14:15 Carnarvon Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 21:45 Hamelin Bay Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 10:15 Leeman Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 19:45 Safety Bay Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 19:45 Rockingham Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 13:45 Quobba Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Green Head Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Jurien Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 13:15 Gnaraloo Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 13:30 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Fremantle Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 North Beach Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 North Fremantle Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Scarborough Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Mosman Park Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Cottesloe Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 East Fremantle Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Coogee Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Swanbourne Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Claremont Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Spearwood Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Bicton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:45 Wattleup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:00 Quinns Rock Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 13:15 Warroora Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:45 Two Rocks Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:45 Yanchep Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Cervantes Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 16:15 Point Samson Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 16:15 Cossack Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:30 Seabird Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:30 Guilderton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 19:15 Lancelin Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 16:30 Wickham Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 13:30 Cardabia Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 17:00 Dampier Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 17:00 Karratha Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 17:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 17:15 Mardie Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 19:15 Learmonth Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 13:15 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 18:30 Onslow Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 18:15 Glenroy Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 15:30 Exmouth Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 18:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
05 Feb 2021 13:00 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1