Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ZAZU-20
in Niue, Tonga

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ZAZU-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Fiji
Exposed population 270 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (17 Dec 04:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Niue)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 173 km/h 1.0 m 48 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 281 km/h 1.1 m 672 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

281 km/h

Up to 270 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Dec 2020 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Fiji16124 
CAT. 2Fiji23287 
CAT. 1Fiji233468 
Tropical StormFiji594547 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Dec 2020 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Tonga
GREEN 2 13 Dec 2020 18:00 68 -
- - - - - Tonga
GREEN 3 14 Dec 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Dec 2020 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Tonga
GREEN 5 14 Dec 2020 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Tonga
GREEN 6 14 Dec 2020 18:00 90 -
- - - - - Tonga
GREEN 7 15 Dec 2020 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Tonga
GREEN 8 15 Dec 2020 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Niue
GREEN 9 15 Dec 2020 12:00 97 -
- - - - - Niue
GREEN 10 15 Dec 2020 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Niue
GREEN 11 16 Dec 2020 00:00 122 -
- - - - - Niue
GREEN 12 16 Dec 2020 06:00 216 270 thousand
- - Fiji




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Dec 2020 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmFiji30839 
250-500 mmFiji660173 
100-250 mmFiji181543 
50-100 mmTuvalu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, Tonga271412
+
Tuvalu39 
Fiji30652 
Wallis and Futuna15561 
Samoa183754 
Tonga41406 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Dec 2020 12:00 19 Few people - - - - - - Tonga
Blue 2 13 Dec 2020 18:00 19 Few people - - - - - - Tonga
Blue 3 14 Dec 2020 00:00 22 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 14 Dec 2020 06:00 26 20 thousand - - - - - - Tonga
Blue 5 14 Dec 2020 12:00 27 20 thousand - - - - - - Tonga
Blue 6 14 Dec 2020 18:00 25 20 thousand - - - - - - Tonga
Blue 7 15 Dec 2020 00:00 31 20 thousand - - - - - - Tonga
Blue 8 15 Dec 2020 06:00 31 1 thousand - - - - - - Niue
Blue 9 15 Dec 2020 12:00 27 1 thousand - - - - - - Niue
Blue 10 15 Dec 2020 18:00 29 1 thousand - - - - - - Niue
Blue 11 16 Dec 2020 00:00 34 1 thousand - - - - - - Niue
Blue 12 16 Dec 2020 06:00 559 870 thousand
- - Tuvalu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, Tonga




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Nalauwaki, Fiji. This height is estimated for 17 Dec 2020 04:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Dec 2020 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Nalauwaki Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Natunuka Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Tavua Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Rabulu Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Togowere Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 01:15 Soso Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 01:15 Somosomo Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 01:15 Matayalevu Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 01:15 Matacawalevu Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 01:15 Sisili Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Nanukuloa Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Nasau Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Nayavutoka Fiji  1.0
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Kasavu Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Nausori Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Korovou Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Lokia Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Naimasimasi Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Ucunivanua Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Cautata Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Nasilai Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 10:30 Dromuna Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Rakiraki Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Vaileka Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Koroinasolo Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Savu Sau Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Navinggiri Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Yangganga Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Nawailevu Fiji  0.8
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Nailanga Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Sorokoba Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 09:00 Ndalomo Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 10:15 Lodoni Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 10:15 Lawaki Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 10:15 Naingani Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 10:15 Navuti Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 10:15 Nasaga Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 10:15 Rukuruku Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 10:15 Lovoni Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Navindamu Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Nagumu Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Tavua Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 06:15 Ndenimanu Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Nacula Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Navotua Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Tamusua Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Teci Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Mbukama Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Yasawairara Fiji  0.7
17 Dec 2020 09:15 Nasarowangga Fiji  0.6
17 Dec 2020 04:45 Lautoka Fiji  0.6
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Ba Fiji  0.6
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Solevu Fiji  0.6
17 Dec 2020 08:30 Nanduri Fiji  0.6
17 Dec 2020 08:30 Vatutandova Fiji  0.6
17 Dec 2020 08:30 Nasea Fiji  0.6
16 Dec 2020 20:15 Namaka Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 15:15 Nauouo Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 15:15 Levuka Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Galoa Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Yanutha Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Matavuralevu Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Pacific Harbour Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Waisomo Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Dakuimbeqa Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Lalati Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Navua Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Naitionitoni Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Mau Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Naruwai Fiji  0.5
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Nabouwalu Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Thavanga Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:45 Ndaria Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:45 Rave-rave Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 08:45 Vunivatu Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 08:45 Navukembuli Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Natua Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Mbangata Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Savusavu Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Naindi Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Korosi Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 18:45 Vione Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 18:45 Dalice Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Nadi Fiji  0.4
16 Dec 2020 07:00 Lao Fiji  0.4
16 Dec 2020 07:00 Nailou Fiji  0.4
16 Dec 2020 07:00 Nawi Fiji  0.4
16 Dec 2020 07:00 Vunikura Fiji  0.4
16 Dec 2020 07:00 Napuka Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Vunisea Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Mburelevu Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Mokoisa Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Naikorokoro Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Namara Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Gasele Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Soso Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Kavala Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Kaduvu Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Korotasere Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Naweni Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Viani Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Ndrekeniwai Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 07:30 Mbangasau Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 08:30 Naua Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 08:30 Namukalau Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Makongai Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Ndawara Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Waisa Fiji  0.4
17 Dec 2020 18:45 Korovisilou Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 18:45 Sawaieke Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Nukuvou Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Nabouwalu Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Vabea Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:45 Momi Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:45 Lomawal Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 07:15 Nakarambo Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:45 Mbatiri Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Cuvu Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Sigatoka Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Laselase Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Vatukarasa Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Korolevu Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Keteira Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 07:15 Malake Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 07:15 Biagunu Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Kalokolevu Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Suva Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Tamavua Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Lauthala Bay Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:15 Laucala Fiji  0.3
18 Dec 2020 03:30 Andako Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 18:45 Vandravandra Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Taunovo Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Nalotu Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:30 Bouwanga Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:30 Namboutini Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Nasau Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 19:00 Talaulia Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 06:00 Tairua New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 06:00 Pauanui New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 06:00 Opoutere New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 06:00 Whangamata New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Nakondu Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Nathamaki Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Nasau Fiji  0.3
16 Dec 2020 19:30 Vangai Fiji  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:15 Te Puia New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:15 Te Puia Springs New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:15 Tokomaru Bay New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:15 Waipiro New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:15 Waipiro Bay New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:15 Whareponga New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 03:15 Tuparoa New Zealand  0.3
18 Dec 2020 12:30 Otumoetai New Zealand  0.3
18 Dec 2020 12:30 Mount Maunganui New Zealand  0.3
18 Dec 2020 12:30 Matapihi New Zealand  0.3
18 Dec 2020 12:30 Kairua New Zealand  0.3
18 Dec 2020 12:30 Papamoa New Zealand  0.3
16 Dec 2020 19:00 Pukehina New Zealand  0.3
16 Dec 2020 19:00 Ohinepanea New Zealand  0.3
16 Dec 2020 19:00 Otamarakau New Zealand  0.3
16 Dec 2020 19:00 Pikowai New Zealand  0.3
16 Dec 2020 19:00 Matata New Zealand  0.3
16 Dec 2020 19:00 Awakaponga New Zealand  0.3
17 Dec 2020 05:30 Tawake Fiji  0.2
16 Dec 2020 20:45 Maketu New Zealand  0.2
16 Dec 2020 20:45 Maniatutu New Zealand  0.2
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Korovou Fiji  0.2
17 Dec 2020 04:00 Navakawau Fiji  0.2
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Nukusa Fiji  0.2
17 Dec 2020 05:15 Nambouono Fiji  0.2
16 Dec 2020 20:00 Sumi Fiji  0.2
16 Dec 2020 20:00 Elsee Fiji  0.2
17 Dec 2020 13:15 Waihi Beach New Zealand  0.2
17 Dec 2020 13:15 Athenree New Zealand  0.2
17 Dec 2020 13:00 Thornton New Zealand  0.2
17 Dec 2020 13:00 Poroporo New Zealand  0.2
17 Dec 2020 13:00 Whakatane New Zealand  0.2
17 Dec 2020 13:00 Ohope Beach New Zealand  0.2
18 Dec 2020 04:00 Lakina Tuvalu  0.2
18 Dec 2020 04:00 Tonga Tuvalu  0.2
18 Dec 2020 04:15 Vaitupu Tuvalu  0.2
16 Dec 2020 15:45 Hicks Bay New Zealand  0.1
16 Dec 2020 15:45 Te Araroa New Zealand  0.1
16 Dec 2020 15:45 Rangitukia New Zealand  0.1
16 Dec 2020 15:45 Horoera New Zealand  0.1
16 Dec 2020 15:45 East Cape New Zealand  0.1
18 Dec 2020 21:45 Opotiki New Zealand  0.1
18 Dec 2020 21:45 Lower Waiawa New Zealand  0.1
18 Dec 2020 21:45 Torere New Zealand  0.1
18 Dec 2020 21:45 Houpoto New Zealand  0.1

Calculation folder at this link