Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for DELTA-20
in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands
04 Oct 2020 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DELTA-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica
Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (04 Oct 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 68 km/h 0.9 m 368 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 234 km/h 2.3 m 489 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

234 km/h

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3Cuba143 
CAT. 2Cuba66 
CAT. 1Cuba, Cayman Islands51,386
+
Cuba136 
Cayman Islands51,250 
Tropical StormCuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica93,491
+
Cuba43,252 
Cayman Islands3,664 
Jamaica46,575 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Oct 2020 18:00 209 50 thousand
- - Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmJamaica287,761 
100-250 mmCuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica1,956,281
+
Cuba86,258 
Cayman Islands35,286 
Jamaica1,834,737 
50-100 mmCuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica770,198
+
Cuba321,436 
Cayman Islands19,628 
Jamaica429,134 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Oct 2020 18:00 503 2.2 million
- - - Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Santo Domingo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Oct 2020 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2020 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Oct 2020 22:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.9
04 Oct 2020 22:00 Rio Lagartos Mexico  0.9
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Chabihau Mexico  0.9
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Mina de Oro Mexico  0.9
04 Oct 2020 22:00 Chisahcab Mexico  0.9
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Cerrito Mexico  0.9
04 Oct 2020 22:00 Telchac Puerto Mexico  0.8
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Pixoy Mexico  0.8
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Progreso Mexico  0.7
04 Oct 2020 22:00 Chelem Mexico  0.7
04 Oct 2020 22:30 El Cuyo Mexico  0.7
04 Oct 2020 22:30 Chipepte Mexico  0.7
04 Oct 2020 22:00 Sisal Mexico  0.6
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Campeche Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.5
04 Oct 2020 22:45 Guerrero Mexico  0.5
04 Oct 2020 22:45 Real de Salinas Mexico  0.5
04 Oct 2020 22:45 Celestum Mexico  0.5
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Neyac Mexico  0.5
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Valton Mexico  0.5
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Hoquel Mexico  0.4
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Champoton Mexico  0.4
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Haltunchen Mexico  0.4
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Seybaplaya Mexico  0.4
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.4
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Chenkan Mexico  0.4
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Noham Mexico  0.4
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Sabancuy Mexico  0.3
04 Oct 2020 22:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Paso Real Mexico  0.3
04 Oct 2020 22:45 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.3
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Arrozal Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 21:30 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 21:30 Majana Cuba  0.2
04 Oct 2020 21:30 Guanimar Cuba  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Hesperides United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Nairn United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Empire United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Sunrise United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Buras United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Ostrica United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Neptune United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Fort Jackson United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Boothville United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Duvic United States  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 El Cajio Cuba  0.2
04 Oct 2020 21:00 Aguas Claras Cuba  0.2
04 Oct 2020 21:00 Almacen Cuba  0.2
04 Oct 2020 21:00 Guasimal Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Victoria Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Balchacah Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Surgidero de Batabano Cuba  0.2
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Batabano Cuba  0.2
04 Oct 2020 20:30 Monte de Oro Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2020 20:30 San Pedro Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 00:00 West Point United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Las Barrillas Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Cozumel Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Punta Molas del Norte Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Davis Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Mexico Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Beacon Hill United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Highland View United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Port Saint Joe United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Milltown United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Oak Grove United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Ward Ridge United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 McNeils United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Indian Pass United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Thirteen Mile United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Odena United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 22:30 Breton United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Hidalgo Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Francisco I. Madero Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 20:15 Mars Bay The Bahamas  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Sanchez Magallanes Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Alley Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Old Harbor Jamaica  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Yahurabila Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Barra de Caratasca Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Kaski Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Dapat Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Cauauira Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Tay Lirila Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Raya Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Clubki Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Cabo Gracias Viejo Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Irlaya Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Cabo Gracias a Dios Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:45 Pusuaya Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:30 Punta de Fisga Cuba  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Eleven Mile United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Nine Mile United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Tilton United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Franklin United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 22:15 Apalachicola United States  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Batey la Caimana Cuba  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Coloma Cuba  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Limera Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Balfate Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:15 Rio Esteban Honduras  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Salinas Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2020 23:00 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1