Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LOWELL-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LOWELL-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (25 Sep 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 65 km/h 1.0 m 115 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 1.0 m 535 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico227 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Sep 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 21 Sep 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 21 Sep 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Sep 2020 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Sep 2020 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 22 Sep 2020 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 22 Sep 2020 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 8 22 Sep 2020 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 22 Sep 2020 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 23 Sep 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 23 Sep 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 23 Sep 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 Sep 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 24 Sep 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 24 Sep 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 24 Sep 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 24 Sep 2020 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 25 Sep 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 25 Sep 2020 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 25 Sep 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

535 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Sep 2020 18:00 327 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 21 Sep 2020 00:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 21 Sep 2020 06:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Sep 2020 12:00 352 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Sep 2020 18:00 517 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 22 Sep 2020 00:00 299 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 22 Sep 2020 06:00 315 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 22 Sep 2020 12:00 327 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 22 Sep 2020 18:00 481 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 23 Sep 2020 00:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 23 Sep 2020 06:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 23 Sep 2020 12:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 23 Sep 2020 18:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 24 Sep 2020 00:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 24 Sep 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 24 Sep 2020 12:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 24 Sep 2020 18:00 39 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 25 Sep 2020 00:00 64 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 25 Sep 2020 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 25 Sep 2020 12:00 115 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Sep 2020 23:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Sep 2020 23:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  1.0
25 Sep 2020 23:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.8
27 Sep 2020 12:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.8
24 Sep 2020 23:30 Cedros Mexico  0.7
25 Sep 2020 23:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.6
24 Sep 2020 00:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.4
24 Sep 2020 00:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.4
24 Sep 2020 08:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 18:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 18:15 Empalme Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 23:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 23:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 23:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 20:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 22:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Novillero Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.3
25 Sep 2020 11:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 22:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2020 10:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 17:15 La Florida Mexico  0.3
25 Sep 2020 05:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 21:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 21:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 07:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 22:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 22:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Monteon Mexico  0.3
25 Sep 2020 18:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 11:15 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.3
26 Sep 2020 10:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 09:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 09:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2020 10:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
26 Sep 2020 08:15 Marmol Mexico  0.3
26 Sep 2020 08:15 Florida Mexico  0.3
26 Sep 2020 08:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 08:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 08:30 Dimas Mexico  0.3
25 Sep 2020 18:45 El Barril Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2020 07:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 21:30 Datilito Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 09:45 La Paz Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 09:45 Rosario Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2020 11:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 22:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2020 11:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 11:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 11:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 19:00 Tripui Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 19:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 09:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 18:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 18:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 18:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Altata Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2020 10:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 22:15 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 18:15 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 18:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 18:00 Mulege Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Barron Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 20:15 Chola Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 19:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 19:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 18:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 18:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 19:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2020 11:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Ipala Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:30 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2020 10:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 22:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 18:15 Ligui Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 10:00 Liliba Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 22:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 Pizota Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:45 San Jose Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 22:30 Cunano Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 23:15 Quinones Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 Corrales Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 19:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 09:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 18:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:30 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:30 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2020 08:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2020 08:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2020 08:30 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link