Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LOWELL-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LOWELL-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (21 Sep 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.5 m 424 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 108 km/h 0.5 m 591 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

108 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico227 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Sep 2020 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 21 Sep 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 21 Sep 2020 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Sep 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Sep 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 22 Sep 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 22 Sep 2020 06:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 8 22 Sep 2020 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 22 Sep 2020 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 23 Sep 2020 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 23 Sep 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 23 Sep 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 23 Sep 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 24 Sep 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 24 Sep 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 24 Sep 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 24 Sep 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 25 Sep 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 25 Sep 2020 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 25 Sep 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 25 Sep 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 26 Sep 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 26 Sep 2020 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 26 Sep 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico18200 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Sep 2020 18:00 266 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 21 Sep 2020 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 21 Sep 2020 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Sep 2020 12:00 109 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Sep 2020 18:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 22 Sep 2020 00:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 22 Sep 2020 06:00 167 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 22 Sep 2020 12:00 81 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 22 Sep 2020 18:00 74 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 23 Sep 2020 00:00 202 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 23 Sep 2020 06:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 23 Sep 2020 12:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 23 Sep 2020 18:00 81 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 24 Sep 2020 00:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 24 Sep 2020 06:00 84 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 24 Sep 2020 12:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 24 Sep 2020 18:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 25 Sep 2020 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 25 Sep 2020 06:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 25 Sep 2020 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 25 Sep 2020 18:00 27 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 26 Sep 2020 00:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 26 Sep 2020 06:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 26 Sep 2020 12:00 424 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Sep 2020 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
21 Sep 2020 17:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.5
21 Sep 2020 12:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.5
23 Sep 2020 11:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.4
23 Sep 2020 20:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.4
21 Sep 2020 12:00 Cedros Mexico  0.4
23 Sep 2020 19:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.4
28 Sep 2020 01:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
28 Sep 2020 01:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 20:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 Empalme Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 20:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.3
21 Sep 2020 12:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:45 El Barril Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 20:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:45 San Ignacio Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 Mulege Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 20:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
28 Sep 2020 10:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 20:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 19:30 Liliba Mexico  0.3
23 Sep 2020 20:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 20:15 Ligui Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 20:15 Tripui Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 11:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 20:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 20:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
21 Sep 2020 09:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
21 Sep 2020 09:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
21 Sep 2020 09:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 19:45 Datilito Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 19:45 La Paz Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 20:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:45 Rosario Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
21 Sep 2020 10:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 09:15 Altata Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 09:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 22:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 08:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 08:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 08:30 Monteon Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 08:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
25 Sep 2020 05:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 09:30 Dimas Mexico  0.2
27 Sep 2020 23:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
27 Sep 2020 23:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 10:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 00:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 00:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2020 07:45 Pizota Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 21:30 Ipala Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2020 22:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 09:30 Corrales Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 09:30 Chola Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 22:15 Barron Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 09:45 Marmol Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 09:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 22:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
28 Sep 2020 22:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
28 Sep 2020 22:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
27 Sep 2020 23:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2020 22:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
21 Sep 2020 00:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
28 Sep 2020 22:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
27 Sep 2020 23:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
27 Sep 2020 23:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
28 Sep 2020 00:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
27 Sep 2020 23:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
27 Sep 2020 23:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2020 21:15 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2020 22:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
25 Sep 2020 05:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2020 21:15 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
28 Sep 2020 23:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
27 Sep 2020 23:45 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link