Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20
Off-shore
17 Sep 2020 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (16 Sep 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 0.5 m 339 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 90 km/h 0.5 m 339 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

90 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Sep 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 13 Sep 2020 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2020 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 14 Sep 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 14 Sep 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 14 Sep 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 14 Sep 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 15 Sep 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 15 Sep 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 15 Sep 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 15 Sep 2020 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 16 Sep 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 16 Sep 2020 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 16 Sep 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 16 Sep 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 17 Sep 2020 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 17 Sep 2020 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico131,944 
50-100 mmMexico334,332 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Sep 2020 00:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 13 Sep 2020 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 13 Sep 2020 12:00 77 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 13 Sep 2020 18:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 14 Sep 2020 00:00 70 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 14 Sep 2020 06:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 14 Sep 2020 12:00 172 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 14 Sep 2020 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 15 Sep 2020 00:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 15 Sep 2020 06:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 15 Sep 2020 12:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 15 Sep 2020 18:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 16 Sep 2020 00:00 171 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 16 Sep 2020 06:00 89 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 16 Sep 2020 12:00 61 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 16 Sep 2020 18:00 31 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 17 Sep 2020 00:00 34 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 17 Sep 2020 06:00 99 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Molino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2020 21:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Sep 2020 21:15 Molino Mexico  0.5
16 Sep 2020 21:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.5
16 Sep 2020 21:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.5
13 Sep 2020 23:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.5
17 Sep 2020 08:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.4
17 Sep 2020 08:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.4
13 Sep 2020 23:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.4
17 Sep 2020 08:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.4
13 Sep 2020 22:45 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.4
17 Sep 2020 08:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.4
18 Sep 2020 18:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.4
18 Sep 2020 17:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.3
13 Sep 2020 22:45 Cedros Mexico  0.3
18 Sep 2020 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
18 Sep 2020 17:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.3
13 Sep 2020 23:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.3
13 Sep 2020 22:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
13 Sep 2020 22:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.3
13 Sep 2020 20:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.3
13 Sep 2020 20:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.3
17 Sep 2020 08:15 El Barril Mexico  0.3
19 Sep 2020 06:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.3
18 Sep 2020 18:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 22:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 22:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 22:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Mulege Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Empalme Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2020 06:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2020 06:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2020 06:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Liliba Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2020 01:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:30 San Jose Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 06:15 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2020 19:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2020 19:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Ligui Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 06:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 06:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2020 06:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:00 Tripui Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2020 02:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 06:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 06:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 06:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2020 05:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2020 18:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2020 13:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 18:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 12:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 12:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
20 Sep 2020 00:45 Altata Mexico  0.2
20 Sep 2020 00:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2020 20:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2020 06:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2020 06:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2020 05:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 06:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 06:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 06:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 06:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2020 06:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2020 06:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
16 Sep 2020 18:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2020 23:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2020 23:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2020 06:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2020 06:00 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2020 06:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2020 06:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2020 05:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2020 00:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
13 Sep 2020 12:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2020 22:45 Dimas Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2020 18:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2020 18:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2020 00:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2020 00:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2020 06:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2020 08:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
16 Sep 2020 08:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2020 06:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2020 15:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1