Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SIX-E-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SIX-E-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (14 Jul 17:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.3 m 152 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 90 km/h 0.6 m 301 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

90 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico83495
+
United States23740 
Mexico59755 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Jul 2020 18:00 83 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 2 14 Jul 2020 00:00 90 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 14 Jul 2020 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 14 Jul 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico1643893 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Jul 2020 18:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Jul 2020 00:00 156 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Jul 2020 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 14 Jul 2020 12:00 192 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Choya, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Jul 2020 17:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Jul 2020 17:15 La Choya Mexico  0.3
14 Jul 2020 17:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
14 Jul 2020 17:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
14 Jul 2020 14:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 17:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 15:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 15:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 15:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 16:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 16:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 16:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 14:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 15:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 15:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 13:15 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 13:15 Lagarto Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 14:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 16:15 La Florida Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 16:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 15:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Maudlowe United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Tivoli United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Austwell United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Green Lake United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 North Seadrift United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Long Mott United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Seadrift United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:45 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 15:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 16:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 16:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:45 Spanish Village United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 16:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 15:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:30 Tangair United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:30 Narlon United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 16:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 16:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 17:30 Surf United States  0.1
14 Jul 2020 16:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 13:30 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 18:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link