Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NISARGA-20
in India

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NISARGA-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries India, Pakistan
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (03 Jun 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.5 m 147 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.7 m 259 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 28.5 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jun 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia, Pakistan28450616
+
India26254553 
Pakistan2196063 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 02 Jun 2020 18:00 83 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 2 03 Jun 2020 00:00 112 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 3 03 Jun 2020 06:00 115 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 4 03 Jun 2020 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Pakistan, India
GREEN 5 03 Jun 2020 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Jun 2020 00:00 65 -
- - - - - India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jun 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndia29120900 
50-100 mmIndia91510803 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 02 Jun 2020 18:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 03 Jun 2020 00:00 125 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Jun 2020 06:00 110 -
- - - - - India
Blue 4 03 Jun 2020 12:00 55 -
- - - - - India
Blue 5 03 Jun 2020 18:00 40 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Jun 2020 00:00 147 750 thousand
- - - - India




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Bankot, India. This height is estimated for 03 Jun 2020 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Jun 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
03 Jun 2020 08:45 Bankot India  0.7
03 Jun 2020 08:45 Kelshi India  0.7
03 Jun 2020 08:45 Anjanwel India  0.7
03 Jun 2020 06:45 Boria India  0.6
03 Jun 2020 06:45 Guhagar India  0.6
03 Jun 2020 06:45 Jaigarh India  0.6
03 Jun 2020 09:00 Srivardhan India  0.5
06 Jun 2020 14:00 Kambhat India  0.5
06 Jun 2020 14:00 Kavi India  0.5
06 Jun 2020 14:00 Sarod India  0.5
06 Jun 2020 14:00 Wadgam India  0.5
03 Jun 2020 06:15 Mirya India  0.5
03 Jun 2020 06:15 Ratnagiri India  0.5
03 Jun 2020 05:45 Purangad India  0.4
03 Jun 2020 05:45 Purnagad India  0.4
06 Jun 2020 15:30 Asarsa India  0.4
06 Jun 2020 16:00 Harinagar India  0.4
06 Jun 2020 16:00 Tankari India  0.4
06 Jun 2020 16:00 Muler India  0.4
03 Jun 2020 09:15 Agar Panchaitan India  0.4
03 Jun 2020 05:45 Adiura India  0.4
06 Jun 2020 17:00 Ghogha India  0.4
06 Jun 2020 16:15 Dahej India  0.4
03 Jun 2020 09:45 Murud India  0.4
03 Jun 2020 05:30 Vijayadurg India  0.4
05 Jun 2020 15:45 New Kandla India  0.3
05 Jun 2020 15:45 Navlakhi India  0.3
06 Jun 2020 15:30 Bhagva India  0.3
06 Jun 2020 15:30 Olpad India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 21:00 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.3
02 Jun 2020 21:00 Idaikkadu Sri Lanka  0.3
02 Jun 2020 21:00 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.3
02 Jun 2020 21:00 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.3
06 Jun 2020 15:15 Damka India  0.3
03 Jun 2020 15:45 Jodiya India  0.3
03 Jun 2020 05:30 Pural India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Anjuna India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Marmagao India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Vasco Da Gama India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Panaji India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Agacaim India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Madgaon India  0.3
03 Jun 2020 15:30 Tuna India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:15 Devgarh India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:15 Achra India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:15 Malvan India  0.3
03 Jun 2020 16:00 Jambura India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:45 Nawaladi Sri Lanka  0.3
06 Jun 2020 16:30 Surat India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 21:30 Kurichchikadu Sri Lanka  0.3
02 Jun 2020 21:30 Kayts Sri Lanka  0.3
02 Jun 2020 21:30 Kankesanturai Sri Lanka  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:15 Vengurla India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:15 Terekhol India  0.3
06 Jun 2020 15:00 Kotada India  0.3
02 Jun 2020 20:15 Chopdem India  0.3
06 Jun 2020 16:15 Jalalpur India  0.3
06 Jun 2020 16:15 Mahuver India  0.3
06 Jun 2020 16:45 Nausari India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:45 Navsari India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:45 Dharasana India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:45 Bilimora India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Mumbai India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Asumumbay India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Uran India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Trombay India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 10:30 Revadanda India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 11:30 Alibag India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 11:30 Mandve India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:00 Udvada India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:00 Valsad India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 16:15 Mundra India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 15:30 Daman India  0.2
04 Jun 2020 23:45 Gadechi India  0.2
04 Jun 2020 23:45 Okha India  0.2
04 Jun 2020 23:45 Aramda India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 15:30 Sika India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 15:30 Jhankhar India  0.2
02 Jun 2020 20:30 Advota India  0.2
02 Jun 2020 20:30 Chaudi India  0.2
02 Jun 2020 20:30 Majali India  0.2
02 Jun 2020 20:30 Sadashivgarh India  0.2
02 Jun 2020 20:30 Karwar India  0.2
05 Jun 2020 22:00 Ghuar Mota India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:30 Bhatkal India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:30 Bainduru India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:30 Chittadi India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 18:15 Mahuva India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:45 Gokarn India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:45 Kumta India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 15:00 Navinal India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 11:30 Honavar India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 11:30 Manki India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 17:15 Kathiwadar Bandar India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 11:30 Belekeri India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 11:30 Ankola India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 14:00 Chudeswar India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 14:00 Salaya India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 17:00 Umbargam India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 17:00 Maroli India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 14:45 Akri India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 17:15 Jafarabad India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:15 Mavalli India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:15 Shirali India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:45 Bordi India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 15:15 Bhadia India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 01:15 Kundapura India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 06:15 Udipi India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 17:30 Dharabandar India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 17:30 Rohisa India  0.2
06 Jun 2020 23:30 Bambu Khan Pakistan  0.2
06 Jun 2020 23:30 Goth Jumo Pakistan  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:30 Gholvad India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 04:30 Ormara Raik Pakistan  0.2
03 Jun 2020 04:30 Ormara Pakistan  0.2
02 Jun 2020 22:15 Naka Kharari Pakistan  0.2
02 Jun 2020 22:15 Gadani Pakistan  0.2
06 Jun 2020 16:30 Malyan India  0.2
03 Jun 2020 03:30 Balaru Pakistan  0.2
05 Jun 2020 11:15 Bada Pakistan  0.2
05 Jun 2020 11:15 Cheru Pakistan  0.2
05 Jun 2020 11:15 Sonmiani Pakistan  0.2
03 Jun 2020 12:00 Malan Pakistan  0.2
03 Jun 2020 10:00 Rumra Pakistan  0.1
03 Jun 2020 15:15 Mandvi India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 10:00 Miski Pakistan  0.1
06 Jun 2020 15:30 Tarapur India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 15:30 Sakhare India  0.1
04 Jun 2020 15:00 Pasni Pakistan  0.1
04 Jun 2020 03:45 Palghar India  0.1
04 Jun 2020 03:45 Mahim India  0.1
04 Jun 2020 03:45 Nalasopara India  0.1
04 Jun 2020 03:45 Agashi India  0.1
04 Jun 2020 03:45 Vasai India  0.1
04 Jun 2020 03:45 Navghar India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 22:30 Jhol Pakistan  0.1
02 Jun 2020 22:30 Keti Pakistan  0.1
06 Jun 2020 15:30 Boisar India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Malad India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 17:00 Delvada India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 17:00 Nawabandar India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 22:30 Suthri India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 10:30 Kalat Pakistan  0.1
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Isa Pakistan  0.1
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Goth Lashkari Pakistan  0.1
06 Jun 2020 18:30 Shirgaon India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Ras Muari Pakistan  0.1
03 Jun 2020 13:00 Goth Haji Muhammad Pakistan  0.1
03 Jun 2020 12:45 Brar Pakistan  0.1
06 Jun 2020 16:15 Nizampatam India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 16:15 Kottapalem India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 16:15 Lankavanidibba India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 18:15 Dongri India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 18:15 Mira Bhayandar India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 18:15 Dangarvadi India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:15 Veraval India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:15 Somnath India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:15 Sutrapada India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:15 Lodhwa India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:15 Kodinar India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:45 Vellankulam Sri Lanka  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:15 Chorwad India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:00 Madhi India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:00 Bhogat India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:00 Lamba India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 06:15 Mulki India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 00:15 Quilandi India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 00:15 Talakkolattur India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 00:15 Kozhikode India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 00:15 Beypore India  0.1
03 Jun 2020 00:15 Chaliyam India  0.1
02 Jun 2020 21:15 Mangrol India  0.1
06 Jun 2020 18:45 Kotra Nes India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link