Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20
in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan
17 May 2020 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh, Burma
Exposed population 15.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 202 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (18 May 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 202 km/h 0.2 m 153 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 263 km/h 2.2 m 1054 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

263 km/h

Up to 15.8 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 4Bangladesh27 
CAT. 3Bangladesh, India712
+
India295 
Bangladesh417 
CAT. 2Bangladesh, India12,952
+
India283 
Bangladesh12,669 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India15,771,684
+
India234,638 
Bangladesh15,537,046 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh, Burma130,758,336
+
India28,042,361 
Bangladesh102,714,224 
Burma1,751 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 16 May 2020 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 16 May 2020 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 16 May 2020 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 17 May 2020 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 17 May 2020 06:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 17 May 2020 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 17 May 2020 18:00 248 15.8 million
- India, Bangladesh, Burma
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India4,002,424
+
India3,680 
Bangladesh3,998,744 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma46,317,691
+
India5,945,779 
Bangladesh40,362,330 
Burma9,582 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma96,082,575
+
India39,379,041 
Bangladesh56,420,006 
Burma283,528 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 16 May 2020 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 16 May 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 16 May 2020 18:00 234 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 17 May 2020 00:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 17 May 2020 06:00 311 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 17 May 2020 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 17 May 2020 18:00 978 50.3 million
- - - India, Bangladesh, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Shwe-o, Myanmar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2020 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 May 2020 00:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
18 May 2020 00:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Gangra India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Kakdwip India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Namkhana India  0.2
17 May 2020 18:00 Belpukur India  0.2
17 May 2020 20:15 Karen India  0.2
17 May 2020 22:00 Baruva India  0.2
17 May 2020 19:30 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 19:30 Hngetkyidaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 19:30 Thegondan Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 19:30 Thaunggon Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Dublat India  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:00 Mibya Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:00 Kala-ywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Ase Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:00 Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:00 Hseikma Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:00 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:00 Malud India  0.1
17 May 2020 22:15 Koyyam India  0.1
17 May 2020 22:15 Dharmavaram India  0.1
17 May 2020 22:15 Srikurman India  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:30 Nuralrevu India  0.1
17 May 2020 19:45 Chaunggyi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:00 Tawbaing Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Ampan Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 23:00 Foul Point Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 23:00 Anaitivu Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Hastmatabad India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Hobdaypur India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Mahglutan India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Garacherama India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Bamboo Flat India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Rangachang India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Jangli Ghat India  0.1
17 May 2020 21:00 Port Blair India  0.1
17 May 2020 23:00 Peddapatnam India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Puri India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Balighai India  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Aunghlaing Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Polaung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Ama Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 18:45 Bogon Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Darein Myanmar  0.1
18 May 2020 00:00 Paung Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:00 Pentakota India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Keaiya India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:15 Taka-roait India  0.1
17 May 2020 20:00 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Karuvaddukkeni Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Pulmoddai Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 18:15 Analkaddimady Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 19:45 Pudimadaka India  0.1
17 May 2020 19:45 Chipurupalle India  0.1
17 May 2020 23:00 Therunattam India  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Hatia Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 21:45 Bandamurlanka India  0.1
17 May 2020 18:45 Htawa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:45 Sinma Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:45 Tazin Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:45 Kangy Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 22:45 Ase-ywa Myanmar  0.1
17 May 2020 19:45 Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 19:45 Arukarkudah Sri Lanka  0.1
17 May 2020 23:00 Gollapalem India  0.1
17 May 2020 22:30 Panasapada India  0.1
17 May 2020 23:45 Venkatapuram India  0.1
17 May 2020 23:45 Pata Polvaram India  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 18:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  0.1
17 May 2020 20:30 Ilichar India  0.1