Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (24 Feb 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 94 km/h 1.1 m 373 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 94 km/h 1.2 m 389 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 5 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia4619 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 18:00 90 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 24 Feb 2020 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 5 24 Feb 2020 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia18 
100-250 mmAustralia5094 
50-100 mmAustralia15200 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 266 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 18:00 213 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 85 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 4 24 Feb 2020 06:00 159 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 5 24 Feb 2020 12:00 373 5 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.2m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 24 Feb 2020 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Karumba Australia  1.2
24 Feb 2020 16:30 Bing Bong Australia  1.1
24 Feb 2020 21:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 20:30 Kulinchin Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 13:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 15:15 Alyangula Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 18:00 Mapoon Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Cowel Creek Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Seisia Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Bamaga Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Cape York Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 17:30 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.5
24 Feb 2020 17:30 Mari Papua New Guinea  0.5
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Hammond I Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Port Kennedy Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Caburinga Village Australia  0.4
23 Feb 2020 20:45 Soeam Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Sarire Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Tamarike Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Matara Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Urum Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Merauke Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Daub Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:30 Anansai Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:30 Wendu Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 20:45 Gove Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 20:45 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 20:45 Yirrkala Australia  0.4
25 Feb 2020 09:15 Thundulda Australia  0.4
25 Feb 2020 09:00 Eyre Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 21:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Okaba Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Alakoe Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Alatepi Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 19:30 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 14:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Kladar Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Sabon Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Tor Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 19:00 Birab Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 23:15 Per Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 23:15 Agats Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 23:15 Amborip Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 23:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Selemit Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 11:00 Wan Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 11:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 21:00 Boigu Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 21:00 Bugi Papua New Guinea  0.2
24 Feb 2020 21:00 Dauan Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 The Palms Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Larrakeyah Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Fannie Bay Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Parap Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Darwin Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Nightcliff Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Ludmilla Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Bagot Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Leanyer Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Berrimah Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:45 Thangoo Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 21:15 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.1
24 Feb 2020 21:15 Saibai Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 18:30 Denial Bay Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 18:30 Thevenard Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 18:30 Ceduna Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 21:15 Derby Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 15:45 Aloszville Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 04:45 Pardoo Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 15:45 Running Creek Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 18:30 Smoky Bay Australia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link