Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
14 Feb 2020 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (14 Feb 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 65 km/h 0.2 m 232 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

83 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar11 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 14 Feb 2020 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmMadagascar52,880 
750-1000 mmMadagascar154,380 
500-750 mmMadagascar549,975 
250-500 mmMadagascar1,155,747 
100-250 mmMadagascar3,769,196 
50-100 mmMadagascar3,943,106 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 248 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 423 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 111 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 265 10 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 14 Feb 2020 12:00 507 250 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 14 Feb 2020 18:00 1826 5.7 million
Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 14 Feb 2020 20:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Feb 2020 20:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:45 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:30 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:30 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 21:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 21:45 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 21:45 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:30 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:30 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:30 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:30 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:45 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 00:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Betsimiranja Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambatonjanahary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:15 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:45 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:45 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:45 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 22:30 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 19:15 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 18:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 23:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1