Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWELVE-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TWELVE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (28 Jan 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.3 m 174 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 72 km/h 0.3 m 324 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

72 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 27 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Jan 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Jan 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Jan 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Jan 2020 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Jan 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 26 Jan 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Jan 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmCook Islands, American Samoa316
+
Cook Islands299 
American Samoa17 
50-100 mmTokelau, Cook Islands9290
+
Tokelau1337 
Cook Islands7953 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Jan 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 25 Jan 2020 18:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Jan 2020 00:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Jan 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Jan 2020 12:00 138 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 26 Jan 2020 18:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Jan 2020 00:00 174 Few people
- - - - Cook Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Pea, Tonga. This height is estimated for 28 Jan 2020 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Jan 2020 12:30 Pea Tonga  0.3
28 Jan 2020 12:30 Nuku'alofa Tonga  0.3
28 Jan 2020 12:30 Mua Tonga  0.3
28 Jan 2020 12:30 Fatumu Tonga  0.3
28 Jan 2020 12:30 Kolonga Tonga  0.3
28 Jan 2020 12:30 Niutoua Tonga  0.3
26 Jan 2020 05:30 Foui Tonga  0.2
26 Jan 2020 05:30 Nukunuku Tonga  0.2
26 Jan 2020 05:30 Houma Tonga  0.2
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Samatau Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Fuailalo Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Fasitootai Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Faleaseela Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Saleimoa Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Falelima Samoa  0.2
28 Jan 2020 08:45 Mua Wallis and Futuna  0.2
28 Jan 2020 08:45 Mata-Utu Wallis and Futuna  0.2
29 Jan 2020 00:00 Utuavanua Samoa  0.1
29 Jan 2020 00:00 Apia Samoa  0.1
29 Jan 2020 00:00 Solosolo Samoa  0.1
26 Jan 2020 02:15 Pangai Tonga  0.1
28 Jan 2020 04:45 Fuaamotu Tonga  0.1
28 Jan 2020 04:45 Ohonua Tonga  0.1
25 Jan 2020 14:15 Neiafu Tonga  0.1
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Esia Fiji  0.1

Calculation folder at this link