Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWELVE-20
Off-shore
Impact Single TC
ECMWF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TWELVE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (27 Jan 16:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.3 m 339 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 68 km/h 0.3 m 520 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 27 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Jan 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Jan 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Jan 2020 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Jan 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Jan 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Jan 2020 12:00 58 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmCook Islands299 
50-100 mmTokelau, American Samoa, Cook Islands80795
+
Tokelau935 
Cook Islands7782 
American Samoa17 
Samoa72061 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Jan 2020 00:00 260 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 25 Jan 2020 12:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Jan 2020 00:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Jan 2020 12:00 277 -
- - - - - Cook Islands
Blue 5 27 Jan 2020 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Jan 2020 12:00 339 -
- - - - - Cook Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Pea, Tonga. This height is estimated for 27 Jan 2020 16:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
27 Jan 2020 16:45 Pea Tonga  0.3
27 Jan 2020 16:45 Nuku'alofa Tonga  0.3
27 Jan 2020 16:45 Mua Tonga  0.3
27 Jan 2020 16:45 Fatumu Tonga  0.3
27 Jan 2020 16:45 Kolonga Tonga  0.3
27 Jan 2020 16:45 Niutoua Tonga  0.3
27 Jan 2020 19:30 Foui Tonga  0.2
27 Jan 2020 19:30 Nukunuku Tonga  0.2
27 Jan 2020 19:30 Houma Tonga  0.2
27 Jan 2020 05:00 Samatau Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 05:00 Fuailalo Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 05:00 Fasitootai Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 05:00 Faleaseela Samoa  0.2
27 Jan 2020 05:00 Saleimoa Samoa  0.2
26 Jan 2020 20:00 Mua Wallis and Futuna  0.2
26 Jan 2020 20:00 Mata-Utu Wallis and Futuna  0.2
27 Jan 2020 20:30 Falelima Samoa  0.2
29 Jan 2020 06:00 Pangai Tonga  0.2
26 Jan 2020 13:30 Solosolo Samoa  0.1
26 Jan 2020 13:30 Lotofago Samoa  0.1
26 Jan 2020 13:30 Amaile Samoa  0.1
27 Jan 2020 15:45 Satupaitea Samoa  0.1
27 Jan 2020 15:45 Puapua Samoa  0.1
27 Jan 2020 15:45 Salelologa Samoa  0.1
27 Jan 2020 15:45 Tuasivi Samoa  0.1
26 Jan 2020 19:15 Utuavanua Samoa  0.1
27 Jan 2020 20:45 Apia Samoa  0.1
27 Jan 2020 16:45 Fuaamotu Tonga  0.1
27 Jan 2020 16:30 Ohonua Tonga  0.1
29 Jan 2020 03:00 Falealupo Samoa  0.1
30 Jan 2020 03:45 Omoka Cook Islands  0.1
30 Jan 2020 03:45 Tautua Cook Islands  0.1
25 Jan 2020 02:15 Neiafu Tonga  0.1
29 Jan 2020 03:00 Esia Fiji  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Aasu American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Futiga American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Pavaiai American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Vaitogi American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Iliili American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Mesepa American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Faleniu American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Fagasa American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Pago Pago American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Siufaga American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Nuuuli American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Fagatogo American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Atuu American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Utulei American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Matuu American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Fagaalu American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Leloaloa American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Aua American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Lauliifou American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Afono American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Masefau American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Auto American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Fagaitua American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Alofau American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Aoa American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Amouli American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Onenoa American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Alao American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Tula American Samoa  0.1
28 Jan 2020 12:15 Aunuu American Samoa  0.1
26 Jan 2020 20:15 Matautu Samoa  0.1
25 Jan 2020 01:15 Alofi Niue  0.1
25 Jan 2020 01:15 Mutalau Niue  0.1
25 Jan 2020 01:15 Lakepa Niue  0.1
25 Jan 2020 01:15 Liku Niue  0.1

Calculation folder at this link