Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NINE-20
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NINE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (25 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 122 km/h 0.2 m 583 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 122 km/h 0.2 m 599 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 24 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Jan 2020 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Jan 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Jan 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Jan 2020 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Jan 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Jan 2020 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Jan 2020 00:00 122 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

599 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMauritius43508 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Jan 2020 12:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Jan 2020 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Jan 2020 00:00 141 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Jan 2020 06:00 73 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Jan 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Jan 2020 18:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Jan 2020 00:00 583 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 25 Jan 2020 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Jan 2020 16:00 La Ferme Mauritius  0.2
25 Jan 2020 16:00 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.2
26 Jan 2020 14:45 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
26 Jan 2020 14:45 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
24 Jan 2020 20:00 La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands  0.1

Calculation folder at this link