Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
17 Sep 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (18 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 126 km/h 4.7 m 365 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 122 km/h 4.7 m 269 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico1,288 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 169 -
- - - - - Mexico
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Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

269 mm

Up to 350 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico6,941 
100-250 mmMexico340,429 
50-100 mmMexico679,298 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 1011 350 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 00:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 00:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 00:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 00:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 00:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 00:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 00:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
17 Sep 2019 22:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:00 Caplen United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:00 Gilchrist United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:00 High Island United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:30 Flake United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:30 Elmgrove United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:30 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:30 Patton United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:00 Fort Travis United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:00 Texas City United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:00 Virginia Point United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:00 Galveston United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:30 Sabine United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 19:45 Sea Isle United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 19:45 Hitchcock United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 19:45 Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 21:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 19:45 Red Fish Cove United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 19:45 Bay Harbor United States  0.2
17 Sep 2019 23:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 22:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:45 Hoskins United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:45 Port Morris United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Quintana United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Surfside United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Mims United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:00 Constance Beach United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 23:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Holly Beach United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Cameron United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 Hoskins United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 Freeport United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 Gulf Park United States  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 22:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 18:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 19:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1