Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIO-19 in Mexico, from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 23 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

22 Sep 2019 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (23 Sep 05:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	58 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
ECMWF Overall	58 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

58 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 12:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	19 Sep 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	19 Sep 2019 12:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	20 Sep 2019 00:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	20 Sep 2019 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	21 Sep 2019 00:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
10	21 Sep 2019 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	22 Sep 2019 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	22 Sep 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	19 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	19 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	20 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	20 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	21 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	21 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	22 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	22 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Datilito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Sep 2019 05:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Sep 2019 05:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2019 05:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2019 05:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 18:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 18:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 21:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 21:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 22:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 22:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 22:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 17:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 19:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2019 21:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2019 21:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	22 Sep 2019 21:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	23 Sep 2019 00:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 18:15	Barrio Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 18:15	Zihuatanejo	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 21:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 23:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 23:15	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 22:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 22:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 21:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 21:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 16:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 16:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 22:15	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 23:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 14:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 14:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 22:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 23:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 22:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 01:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 01:45	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 01:45	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 01:45	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 21:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 21:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 23:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 22:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 22:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 20:30	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 20:30	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 20:30	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 14:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 14:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 14:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 14:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	23 Sep 2019 23:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	24 Sep 2019 22:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 21:30	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1