Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIO-19
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (22 Sep 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 58 km/h 0.5 m 66 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 58 km/h 0.0 m 66 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

137 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Sep 2019 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Sep 2019 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 20 Sep 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Sep 2019 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 20 Sep 2019 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 20 Sep 2019 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 21 Sep 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 21 Sep 2019 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 17 21 Sep 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 18 21 Sep 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 22 Sep 2019 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Sep 2019 06:00 58 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 447 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 326 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 306 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 395 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 213 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Sep 2019 12:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 19 Sep 2019 18:00 414 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 20 Sep 2019 00:00 195 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 20 Sep 2019 06:00 409 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 20 Sep 2019 12:00 293 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 20 Sep 2019 18:00 322 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 21 Sep 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 21 Sep 2019 06:00 100 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 17 21 Sep 2019 12:00 40 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 21 Sep 2019 18:00 20 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 22 Sep 2019 00:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 22 Sep 2019 06:00 66 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Agua del Coyote, Mexico. This height is estimated for 22 Sep 2019 15:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Sep 2019 15:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.5
22 Sep 2019 13:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.4
22 Sep 2019 19:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2019 19:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2019 19:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2019 19:30 La Florida Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2019 12:45 San Blas Mexico  0.3
22 Sep 2019 12:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
24 Sep 2019 07:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2019 07:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2019 07:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 07:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 07:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 09:30 Quinones Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 22:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 22:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2019 12:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 16:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 09:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 09:30 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 09:30 Cunano Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 16:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 15:15 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 15:15 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2019 06:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 07:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 17:00 Tripui Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 17:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 17:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 06:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 09:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 17:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
24 Sep 2019 06:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 17:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 17:45 Dimas Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 17:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:00 Ligui Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 16:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 16:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 11:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
23 Sep 2019 02:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 10:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
22 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 17:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 12:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 12:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 17:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2019 01:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2019 01:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2019 01:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 10:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 10:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 06:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 10:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 23:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 23:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 17:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 11:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2019 13:00 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 11:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 16:45 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 09:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 09:45 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 09:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2019 00:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2019 06:45 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 16:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 06:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2019 13:00 Joluta Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2019 00:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2019 00:00 Ipala Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 17:15 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 17:45 Santiago Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 17:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 17:45 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
23 Sep 2019 07:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 10:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 10:00 Chula Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 12:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 12:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2019 14:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
24 Sep 2019 07:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 23:45 Corrales Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 12:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
22 Sep 2019 07:45 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link