Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KIKO-19
Off-shore
18 Sep 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KIKO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (15 Sep 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 0.0 m 729 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 0.0 m 729 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States207,368 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2019 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2019 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 13 Sep 2019 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 13 Sep 2019 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 14 Sep 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 14 Sep 2019 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Sep 2019 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Sep 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 15 Sep 2019 00:00 155 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 12 15 Sep 2019 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 15 Sep 2019 12:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 15 Sep 2019 18:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 16 Sep 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 16 Sep 2019 06:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 16 Sep 2019 12:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 16 Sep 2019 18:00 148 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 19 17 Sep 2019 00:00 122 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 20 17 Sep 2019 06:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 17 Sep 2019 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 17 Sep 2019 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 18 Sep 2019 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 18 Sep 2019 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 18 Sep 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

729 mm

Up to 420 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico420,117 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico641,406
+
United States74,242 
Mexico567,164 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2019 12:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 12 Sep 2019 18:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 13 Sep 2019 00:00 281 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 13 Sep 2019 06:00 235 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 13 Sep 2019 12:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 13 Sep 2019 18:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 14 Sep 2019 00:00 251 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 14 Sep 2019 06:00 206 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Sep 2019 12:00 202 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 14 Sep 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 15 Sep 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 15 Sep 2019 06:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 15 Sep 2019 12:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 15 Sep 2019 18:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 16 Sep 2019 00:00 178 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 16 Sep 2019 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 16 Sep 2019 12:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 16 Sep 2019 18:00 238 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 17 Sep 2019 00:00 244 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 17 Sep 2019 06:00 216 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 17 Sep 2019 12:00 241 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 17 Sep 2019 18:00 170 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 18 Sep 2019 00:00 381 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 18 Sep 2019 06:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 18 Sep 2019 12:00 729 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in San Jose, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Sep 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Sep 2019 02:00 San Jose Mexico  0.3
15 Sep 2019 02:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
15 Sep 2019 02:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Mulege Mexico  0.3
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.3
15 Sep 2019 01:45 Loreto Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 01:45 Ligui Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 01:45 Tripui Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:15 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 22:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2019 01:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2019 01:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Liliba Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2019 01:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 01:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 06:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 06:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 10:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 21:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2019 02:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2019 02:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2019 02:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
13 Sep 2019 01:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2019 18:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2019 18:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 09:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 09:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 09:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 21:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 21:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2019 21:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 10:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2019 18:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 07:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2019 18:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
12 Sep 2019 18:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 22:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 09:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 05:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 18:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 09:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 05:00 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 21:15 Altata Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 21:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 05:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 04:45 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 21:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 21:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
14 Sep 2019 10:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 21:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2019 21:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2019 20:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2019 20:45 Dimas Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 19:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 20:45 Marmol Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 20:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
14 Sep 2019 10:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 06:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 20:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 20:45 Barron Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 06:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Santiago Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 El Real Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 07:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 07:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 21:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:30 Pizota Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 07:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 20:45 Chamela Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2019 20:30 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1