Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-19
in Mexico
03 Sep 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FERNAND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (05 Sep 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 54 km/h 0.2 m 573 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 54 km/h 0.2 m 573 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

54 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 02 Sep 2019 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Sep 2019 00:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Sep 2019 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMexico413 
250-500 mmMexico172,806 
100-250 mmMexico6,091,293 
50-100 mmMexico, United States, Guatemala3,191,117
+
Mexico2,991,042 
United States38,061 
Guatemala162,014 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 02 Sep 2019 12:00 50 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 03 Sep 2019 00:00 70 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 03 Sep 2019 12:00 567 6.2 million
- - Mexico, United States, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Chaparral, Mexico. This height is estimated for 05 Sep 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Sep 2019 02:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 El Porvenir Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:45 Los Ebanos Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:45 El Mezquital Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.2
05 Sep 2019 00:00 Holly Beach United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 00:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 00:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 00:00 Port Isabel United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 00:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 00:00 South Padre Island United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 00:00 Boca Chica United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 01:15 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:45 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.2
05 Sep 2019 04:30 El Martillo United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 04:30 Yarborough United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:00 Chinquapin United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:15 Matagorda United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:00 Indianola United States  0.2
02 Sep 2019 18:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Surfside United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Mims United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Hoskins United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Port Morris United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Red Fish Cove United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Bay Harbor United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Sea Isle United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:45 Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:30 Hitchcock United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:30 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:30 Virginia Point United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:30 Galveston United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 02:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 02:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 02:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:30 Freeport United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 04:30 Quintana United States  0.2
05 Sep 2019 01:45 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Ingleside United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Port Aransas United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Fort Travis United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Flake United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Elmgrove United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Patton United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Caplen United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:30 Gilchrist United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:15 Gulf Park United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:15 Hoskins United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 07:15 Valasco Heights United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:30 La Pesca Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Estes United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Rockport United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:45 Fulton United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Nadeau United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Texas City United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:30 High Island United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:30 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 23:30 Sabine United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:30 Holly Beach United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:30 Cameron United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Oak Grove United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Constance Beach United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 19:15 Tepeguahe Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 19:15 Los Pericos Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 19:15 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 19:15 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 15:00 Laja Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 19:15 La Presita Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 16:15 Celestum Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:30 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:30 Primero de Mayo Mexico  0.1
05 Sep 2019 00:45 Tampico Alta Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:00 El Tular Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 22:00 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 16:15 Chisahcab Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 18:00 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 18:00 Chenkan Mexico  0.1