Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FLOSSIE-19 Off-shore from 28 Jul 2019 15:00 UTC to 06 Aug 2019 00:00 UTC

30 Jul 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FLOSSIE-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	133 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (30 Jul 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	133 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
ECMWF Overall	133 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 30 Jul 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	28 Jul 2019 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	28 Jul 2019 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Jul 2019 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	29 Jul 2019 12:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Jul 2019 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

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Impact estimation for the next 72h

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N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	28 Jul 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	28 Jul 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Jul 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	29 Jul 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Jul 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in San Francisco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Jul 2019 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Jul 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Jul 2019 08:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.3
	30 Jul 2019 08:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.3
	30 Jul 2019 08:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.3
	31 Jul 2019 05:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	31 Jul 2019 05:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	30 Jul 2019 19:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 19:00	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 19:00	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jul 2019 15:00	El Papayo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 18:30	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 18:30	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 18:30	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	31 Jul 2019 05:30	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jul 2019 02:45	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	31 Jul 2019 05:30	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	31 Jul 2019 05:15	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jul 2019 15:15	Acapulco	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jul 2019 15:15	El Marques	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 18:15	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 18:45	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 18:45	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	30 Jul 2019 18:45	Pizota	Mexico	0.1