Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVIN-19
Off-shore
29 Jun 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVIN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.8 m (28 Jun 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 126 km/h 1.8 m 668 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 126 km/h 1.8 m 668 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico211 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Jun 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Jun 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Jun 2019 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Jun 2019 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Jun 2019 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Jun 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Jun 2019 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Jun 2019 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Jun 2019 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Jun 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 28 Jun 2019 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Jun 2019 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 28 Jun 2019 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 29 Jun 2019 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 29 Jun 2019 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

668 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 29 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Jun 2019 18:00 200 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Jun 2019 00:00 322 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Jun 2019 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Jun 2019 12:00 167 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Jun 2019 18:00 197 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Jun 2019 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Jun 2019 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Jun 2019 12:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Jun 2019 18:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Jun 2019 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 28 Jun 2019 06:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 28 Jun 2019 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 28 Jun 2019 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 29 Jun 2019 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 29 Jun 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.8m in San Francisco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Jun 2019 07:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Jun 2019 07:15 San Francisco Mexico  1.8
28 Jun 2019 07:15 Monteon Mexico  1.8
28 Jun 2019 07:15 La Lima Mexico  1.8
28 Jun 2019 07:00 Punta Mita Mexico  1.7
28 Jun 2019 07:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  1.7
29 Jun 2019 01:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  1.5
29 Jun 2019 01:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  1.5
28 Jun 2019 07:15 San Blas Mexico  1.5
28 Jun 2019 07:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  1.5
28 Jun 2019 14:00 Novillero Mexico  1.3
28 Jun 2019 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  1.3
28 Jun 2019 14:30 Cuamecate Mexico  1.2
28 Jun 2019 13:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  1.2
29 Jun 2019 00:45 El Castillo Mexico  1.2
28 Jun 2019 06:45 Pizota Mexico  1.2
28 Jun 2019 07:15 El Nuevo Mexico  1.2
28 Jun 2019 07:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  1.2
28 Jun 2019 13:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  1.2
28 Jun 2019 13:30 Perihuete Mexico  1.1
28 Jun 2019 20:00 Los Burros Mexico  1.1
28 Jun 2019 18:45 La Boca Mexico  1.1
28 Jun 2019 13:00 Dimas Mexico  1.1
28 Jun 2019 18:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  1.1
28 Jun 2019 13:15 La Palmita Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 13:15 Caimanero Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 13:15 Jarilla Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 13:45 La Puerta Mexico  1.0
29 Jun 2019 07:45 Datilito Mexico  1.0
29 Jun 2019 07:45 La Paz Mexico  1.0
29 Jun 2019 07:45 Rosario Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 18:30 Altata Mexico  1.0
29 Jun 2019 07:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 13:00 Marmol Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 06:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 06:30 Ipala Mexico  1.0
28 Jun 2019 13:00 Florida Mexico  0.9
28 Jun 2019 13:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.9
28 Jun 2019 13:00 Barron Mexico  0.9
28 Jun 2019 06:45 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.9
28 Jun 2019 06:30 Chola Mexico  0.9
29 Jun 2019 07:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.9
29 Jun 2019 07:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.9
29 Jun 2019 07:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.9
28 Jun 2019 06:45 Corrales Mexico  0.8
29 Jun 2019 06:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.8
29 Jun 2019 06:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.8
29 Jun 2019 06:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.8
29 Jun 2019 06:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.8
29 Jun 2019 06:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.8
29 Jun 2019 11:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.7
28 Jun 2019 15:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.7
28 Jun 2019 15:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.7
28 Jun 2019 13:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.6
28 Jun 2019 13:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.6
29 Jun 2019 09:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.6
28 Jun 2019 20:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.6
28 Jun 2019 20:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.6
28 Jun 2019 19:00 Quinones Mexico  0.5
29 Jun 2019 20:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.5
28 Jun 2019 13:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.5
28 Jun 2019 06:45 Chamela Mexico  0.5
29 Jun 2019 20:15 La Florida Mexico  0.5
29 Jun 2019 02:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.5
28 Jun 2019 06:30 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 02:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 02:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 02:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 07:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.4
30 Jun 2019 08:45 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:15 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:15 El Real Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:30 Santiago Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.4
01 Jul 2019 17:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.4
30 Jun 2019 01:00 Chula Mexico  0.4
30 Jun 2019 01:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.4
30 Jun 2019 01:45 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:30 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 13:45 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 13:45 Joluta Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 01:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.4
29 Jun 2019 01:45 Cunano Mexico  0.4
28 Jun 2019 06:15 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.3
28 Jun 2019 18:30 Acapulco Mexico  0.3
28 Jun 2019 18:30 El Marques Mexico  0.3
28 Jun 2019 06:15 Chupadero Mexico  0.3
30 Jun 2019 13:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.3
28 Jun 2019 13:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 08:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.3
28 Jun 2019 17:30 Pie Cerro Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 08:15 Mauricio Gutierrez Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 02:45 El Papayo Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 02:15 Apisa Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 02:15 Cayaca Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 02:15 San Telmo Mexico  0.3
30 Jun 2019 20:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 07:30 El Tule Mexico  0.3
29 Jun 2019 07:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
28 Jun 2019 15:15 La Tuza Mexico  0.3
30 Jun 2019 20:00 Marquelia Mexico  0.2
30 Jun 2019 02:00 Lagunillas Mexico  0.2
30 Jun 2019 02:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 21:45 Copala Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 08:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 08:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 06:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.2
28 Jun 2019 07:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 21:30 Calvario Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 17:00 Nuxco Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 04:00 Coyuquillas Mexico  0.2
29 Jun 2019 02:15 Maruata Mexico  0.1
29 Jun 2019 02:15 Bucerias Mexico  0.1