Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAVANNAH-19
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAVANNAH-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (23 Mar 03:45 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 130 km/h 0.3 m 649 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 140 km/h 0.3 m 668 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Mar 2019 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Mar 2019 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Mar 2019 12:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Mar 2019 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Mar 2019 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Mar 2019 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 16 Mar 2019 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 17 Mar 2019 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 17 Mar 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 Mar 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 18 Mar 2019 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 19 Mar 2019 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 19 Mar 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 20 Mar 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 20 Mar 2019 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 21 Mar 2019 00:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Mar 2019 12:00 130 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

-1 mm

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMauritius43508 
50-100 mmCocos (Keeling) Islands596 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Mar 2019 12:00 421 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 14 Mar 2019 00:00 409 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 14 Mar 2019 12:00 450 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Mar 2019 00:00 583 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 15 Mar 2019 12:00 690 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 16 Mar 2019 00:00 870 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 16 Mar 2019 12:00 619 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 17 Mar 2019 00:00 362 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 17 Mar 2019 12:00 476 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 18 Mar 2019 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 18 Mar 2019 12:00 506 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 19 Mar 2019 00:00 509 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 19 Mar 2019 12:00 579 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 20 Mar 2019 00:00 545 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 20 Mar 2019 12:00 468 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 21 Mar 2019 00:00 994 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 21 Mar 2019 12:00 649 40 thousand -
- - - - Mauritius




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 23 Mar 2019 03:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Mar 2019 03:45 La Ferme Mauritius  0.3
23 Mar 2019 03:45 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.3
14 Mar 2019 19:30 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.2
17 Mar 2019 03:00 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
17 Mar 2019 03:00 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.2
13 Mar 2019 14:15 La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands  0.1

Calculation folder at this link