Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
11 Oct 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 120 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Oct 15:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 0.3 m 187 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 120 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Mexico51 
CAT. 1Mexico121,482 
Tropical StormMexico748,387 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 180 120 thousand
- - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico10,718 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico917,946
+
United States71,156 
Mexico846,789 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico760,926
+
United States298,209 
Mexico462,717 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 466 930 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 15:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Florida Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Dimas Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 22:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 00:30 La Gloria Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 00:30 Chaparral Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Barron Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Novillero Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 01:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 15:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 22:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 21:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 21:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 22:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Matagorda United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Chinquapin United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 20:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 15:00 Estes United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 15:00 Rockport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 15:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 15:00 Copano Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 15:00 Fulton United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 15:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 15:00 Lamar United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 North Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Doyle United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Portland United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Gregory United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 06:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 09:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 09:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 16:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 17:45 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 17:45 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 17:45 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 17:45 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 17:45 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Carancahua United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:30 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Palacios United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Collegeport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Simpsonville United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:30 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 08:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 San Pedro United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Wilmington United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Signal Hill United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Belmont Shore United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Surfside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Seal Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Huntington Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Las Flores United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Castellammare United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Pacific Palisades United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Santa Monica United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Sawtelle United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Marina del Rey United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Playa del Rey United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Alsace United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 El Segundo United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Manhattan Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Hermosa Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Clifton United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Redondo Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Rolling Hills United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Malibu United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Monte Nido United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Peary Place United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:15 Indianola United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:15 Olivia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:15 Weedhaven United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:15 Port Alto United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Boca Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Port Aransas United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Two Harbors United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Avalon United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Newport Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Bay Shores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Azure Vista United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Roseville United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Loma Portal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 San Diego United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Coronado United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Boal United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Balboa United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:45 Yarborough United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Top of the World United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 South Laguna United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 San Clemente United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Agra United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Las Flores United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Maudlowe United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Tivoli United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Spanish Village United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Austwell United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Long Mott United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 18:00 Seadrift United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Stuart United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Oceanside United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Carlsbad United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Ponto United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Leucadia United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Encinitas United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 La Jolla United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 The Muirlands United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Mission Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Easter Cross United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Solana Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Del Mar United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:15 Sorrento United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 18:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 17:30 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 El Tule Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 City Arroyo United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Buena Vista United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 01:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1