Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
11 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population 140 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (13 Oct 14:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 0.6 m 88 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 0.4 m 440 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

130 km/h

Up to 1.8 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico138,796 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico1,787,368
+
United States808,989 
Mexico978,378 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 176 140 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico6,384,563
+
United States5,196,323 
Mexico1,188,240 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico6,358,033
+
United States5,652,914 
Mexico705,118 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 402 6.4 million
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Mazatlan, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 14:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.6
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Barron Mexico  0.6
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Florida Mexico  0.6
13 Oct 2021 14:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.6
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Marmol Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 14:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.5
14 Oct 2021 07:30 La Gloria Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:30 Chaparral Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Novillero Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 North Beach United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Gardendale United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Doyle United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Orange Grove United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Portland United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Gregory United States  0.4
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.4
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Matagorda United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Chinquapin United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:15 Riviera United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:15 Vattman United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:15 Loyola Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:15 Orange Grove United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:15 La Parra Landing United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Ingleside United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Estes United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Rockport United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Shell Ridge United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Copano Village United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Fulton United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Holiday Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:15 Lamar United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 15:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Spanish Village United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Austwell United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 08:00 Seadrift United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 03:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Peary Place United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.3
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:00 Carancahua United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:00 El Campo Club Community United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:00 Camp Hulen United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:00 Palacios United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:00 Collegeport United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:00 Simpsonville United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 09:00 Citrus Grove United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Dimas Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:30 Port Aransas United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 03:00 La Choya Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:30 Indianola United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:30 Olivia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:30 Weedhaven United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:30 Port Alto United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:30 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 19:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 08:45 Yarborough United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 City Arroyo United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Buena Vista United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Altata Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:15 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:15 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Maudlowe United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Tivoli United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Long Mott United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 05:00 El Martillo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Top of the World United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 South Laguna United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 San Clemente United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Agra United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Las Flores United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:30 San Blas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 La Jolla United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 The Muirlands United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Mission Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Easter Cross United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Roseville United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 San Diego United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Coronado United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Boal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Stuart United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Oceanside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Carlsbad United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Ponto United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Leucadia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Encinitas United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Solana Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Del Mar United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Sorrento United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Balboa United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Newport Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Bay Shores United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Signal Hill United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Surfside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Seal Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Castellammare United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Pacific Palisades United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Santa Monica United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Sawtelle United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Marina del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Playa del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Alsace United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 El Segundo United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Manhattan Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Hermosa Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Clifton United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Malibu United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Monte Nido United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 San Pedro United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Wilmington United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Avalon United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Two Harbors United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 El Descanso Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 La Mision Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1