Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
11 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (14 Oct 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 0.4 m 319 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico20,938
+
United States345 
Mexico20,593 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico623 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,744,151
+
United States1,118,916 
Mexico625,234 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico6,778,639
+
United States5,847,339 
Mexico931,299 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 215 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 345 1.7 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Gloria, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Oct 2021 05:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Oct 2021 05:15 La Gloria Mexico  0.4
14 Oct 2021 05:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 11:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 11:30 La Boca Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 11:30 Dimas Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 01:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2021 06:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2021 06:15 La Choya Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Spanish Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Austwell United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Seadrift United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:15 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:15 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:15 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:15 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 North Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 Gardendale United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 Doyle United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 Portland United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 Gregory United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 02:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Estes United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Rockport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Copano Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Fulton United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Lamar United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Carancahua United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Palacios United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Collegeport United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Simpsonville United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:00 Indianola United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:00 Olivia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:00 Weedhaven United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:00 Port Alto United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 04:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Maudlowe United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Tivoli United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:00 Long Mott United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:45 Peary Place United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 03:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Molino Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Yarborough United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 City Arroyo United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Buena Vista United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Azure Vista United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Roseville United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Loma Portal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 San Diego United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Coronado United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Boal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Port Aransas United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 La Jolla United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 The Muirlands United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Mission Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Easter Cross United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:30 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:30 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:30 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 11:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 San Pedro United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Wilmington United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Signal Hill United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Surfside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Seal Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Stuart United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Oceanside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Carlsbad United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Ponto United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Leucadia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Encinitas United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Solana Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Newport Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Bay Shores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Sorrento United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Agra United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 San Clemente United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 11:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Top of the World United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 South Laguna United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Balboa United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Santa Monica United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Marina del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Playa del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Alsace United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 El Segundo United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Manhattan Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Hermosa Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Clifton United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 11:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Two Harbors United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Avalon United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Castellammare United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Pacific Palisades United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Sawtelle United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Malibu United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Monte Nido United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 El Descanso Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 La Mision Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Encino Solo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:15 El Tule Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:15 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 02:15 Matagorda United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 12:00 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1