Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
13 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Oct 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 115 km/h 0.3 m 208 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 580 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico575,961 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico23,869 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico776,272
+
United States54,792 
Mexico721,479 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico5,993,804
+
United States5,629,608 
Mexico364,195 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 153 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 392 800 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Perihuete, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Dimas Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 21:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 21:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 01:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Matagorda United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Chinquapin United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Cunano Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Carancahua United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Palacios United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Collegeport United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Simpsonville United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:45 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Estes United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Rockport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Copano Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Fulton United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 10:45 Lamar United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 16:15 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Indianola United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Olivia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Weedhaven United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Port Alto United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 04:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Quinones Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 North Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Doyle United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Portland United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Gregory United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
15 Oct 2021 11:30 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 11:30 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 11:30 Spanish Village United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 11:30 Austwell United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 11:30 Long Mott United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 11:30 Seadrift United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Ingleside United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 12:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 01:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 01:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Ayutla Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 La Choya Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Peary Place United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:15 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Corrales Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Ipala Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Mirador Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Port Aransas United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 14:00 Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 09:00 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1