Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Oct 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 126 km/h 0.3 m 194 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico554,817 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

404 mm

Up to 990 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico4,716 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico981,765
+
United States219,631 
Mexico762,134 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico9,743,334
+
United States9,303,583 
Mexico439,750 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 153 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 348 990 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Marmol Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 22:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 01:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Dimas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Estes United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Rockport United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Copano Village United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Fulton United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Lamar United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 North Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Doyle United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Portland United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Gregory United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:45 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Matagorda United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 20:15 Chinquapin United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Altata Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:15 Loreto Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:30 La Lima Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:15 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:15 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:15 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 00:15 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Spanish Village United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Austwell United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Long Mott United States  0.2
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Seadrift United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Rosario Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 08:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 08:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Indianola United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Olivia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Weedhaven United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Port Alto United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Carancahua United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Palacios United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Peary Place United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 15:45 Collegeport United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 15:45 Simpsonville United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 15:45 Citrus Grove United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 10:30 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:15 Port Aransas United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 09:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 09:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Corrales Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Ipala Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2021 00:15 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2021 00:15 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2021 10:30 Mirador Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2021 10:30 Ayutla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 Pizota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 14:00 Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 San Pedro United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Wilmington United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Signal Hill United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Surfside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Seal Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.1