Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Oct 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 162 km/h 0.3 m 153 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico08 
Tropical StormMexico715,861 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 162 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico1,000 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico312,389
+
United States6,756 
Mexico305,633 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico7,705,519
+
United States6,862,799 
Mexico842,719 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 363 310 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Gloria, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 22:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 22:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 22:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 08:45 Dimas Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Marmol Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 01:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Florida Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 North Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Doyle United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Portland United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Gregory United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 19:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Estes United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Rockport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Copano Village United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Fulton United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 07:45 Lamar United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:30 Barron Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:30 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 18:15 Matagorda United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 18:15 Chinquapin United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 12:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:30 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 02:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 01:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:45 Carancahua United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:45 Palacios United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:45 Collegeport United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:45 Simpsonville United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 09:45 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 00:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Maudlowe United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Tivoli United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Spanish Village United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Austwell United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Long Mott United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 09:30 Seadrift United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Peary Place United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Indianola United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Olivia United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Weedhaven United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Port Alto United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 10:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 15:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 00:30 Yarborough United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Corrales Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 Ipala Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:30 Port Aransas United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 15:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 City Arroyo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Buena Vista United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 San Pedro United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Wilmington United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Signal Hill United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Surfside United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Seal Beach United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 19:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 16:15 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 14:45 El Tule Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 14:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 14:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 00:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 Apisa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 17:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1