Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (10 Apr 09:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.8 m 318 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 133 km/h 2.5 m 625 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia10,506 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 151 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia428,435
+
Indonesia428,308 
Australia127 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 274 280 thousand
- - - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 160 50 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 155 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 06:00 127 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 203 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 233 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 204 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 203 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 296 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 397 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Learmonth, Australia. This height is estimated for 10 Apr 2021 09:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Apr 2021 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Apr 2021 09:45 Learmonth Australia  0.8
10 Apr 2021 17:30 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.6
10 Apr 2021 17:30 Useless Loop Australia  0.6
10 Apr 2021 09:15 Exmouth Australia  0.6
10 Apr 2021 10:15 Onslow Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 16:30 Denham Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 18:00 Mardie Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 07:45 Karratha Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:00 Dampier Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Wickham Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Point Samson Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:15 Cossack Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 08:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.4
07 Apr 2021 19:45 Broome Australia  0.4
07 Apr 2021 19:45 Thangoo Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 05:45 Port Hedland Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 05:45 Wedgefield Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 09:45 Glenroy Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 16:15 Shark Bay Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 16:15 Monkey Mia Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 08:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 05:45 Pardoo Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 06:15 Condon Australia  0.3
07 Apr 2021 18:30 Waterbank Australia  0.3
07 Apr 2021 18:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.3
10 Apr 2021 18:00 Tamala Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Derby Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 18:00 Carrarang Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 18:00 Nanga Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:00 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:00 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:00 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:00 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 15:00 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 17:30 Warroora Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 17:15 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 17:30 Quobba Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:45 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 14:45 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 18:00 Hamelin Pool Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 17:30 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.2
07 Apr 2021 20:15 Pender Australia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 17:45 Carnarvon Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 18:00 Hamelin Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Bayeman Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 11:30 Cardabia Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Sampang Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 17:30 Gladstone Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Gending Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 13:15 Galis Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 11:00 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
07 Apr 2021 20:45 Kollan I Australia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 09:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:15 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Losan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:00 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Djate Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 23:30 Klampok Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:00 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:45 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:45 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:45 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:00 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:45 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Domas Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:30 Tegal Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:30 Wanasari Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:30 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 08:30 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:45 Situbondo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 13:30 Djangdjangan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 12:30 Kesambirampak Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:15 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:45 Plosokere Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:45 Djenu Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:45 Tuban Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:45 Semanding Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:45 Podang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 06:45 Brondong Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 05:45 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:15 Patrol Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:15 Kandanghaur Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:45 Pedes Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:45 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:45 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 00:45 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:30 Pemalang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:30 Petaroekan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:15 Padangan-wetan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:15 Kalipang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:15 Lemanbang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 07:15 Tambakbaja Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 22:15 Sigedang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 02:30 Merak Indonesia  0.1