Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21
in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
07 Mar 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 47 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (09 Mar 16:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 47 km/h 0.4 m 31 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 349 km/h 1.1 m 1134 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

349 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Mar 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia26 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 03 Mar 2021 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 03 Mar 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Mar 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Mar 2021 18:00 130 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 13 04 Mar 2021 00:00 148 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 14 04 Mar 2021 06:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Mar 2021 12:00 162 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 16 04 Mar 2021 18:00 173 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
GREEN 17 05 Mar 2021 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 05 Mar 2021 06:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 05 Mar 2021 12:00 274 -
- - - - - New Caledonia
GREEN 20 05 Mar 2021 18:00 349 -
- - - - - New Caledonia
GREEN 21 06 Mar 2021 00:00 202 Few people
- - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
RED 22 06 Mar 2021 06:00 180 90 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia
GREEN 23 06 Mar 2021 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 06 Mar 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 07 Mar 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 07 Mar 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Mar 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmSolomon Islands, Vanuatu, Australia44,902
+
Solomon Islands10 
Vanuatu42,687 
Australia2,205 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 157 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 81 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 03 Mar 2021 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Mar 2021 06:00 210 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 11 03 Mar 2021 12:00 189 2 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 12 03 Mar 2021 18:00 192 50 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 13 04 Mar 2021 00:00 196 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 14 04 Mar 2021 06:00 181 Few people
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 15 04 Mar 2021 12:00 164 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 16 04 Mar 2021 18:00 207 10 thousand
- - - - Vanuatu
Blue 17 05 Mar 2021 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 05 Mar 2021 06:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 05 Mar 2021 12:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 05 Mar 2021 18:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 06 Mar 2021 00:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 06 Mar 2021 06:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 06 Mar 2021 12:00 100 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 06 Mar 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 25 07 Mar 2021 00:00 24 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 07 Mar 2021 06:00 102 -
- - - - - Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Badu, Australia. This height is estimated for 09 Mar 2021 16:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Mar 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Mar 2021 16:30 Badu Australia  0.4
09 Mar 2021 16:00 Hammond I Australia  0.3
09 Mar 2021 16:00 Port Kennedy Australia  0.3
09 Mar 2021 16:30 Cowel Creek Australia  0.3
09 Mar 2021 16:15 Seisia Australia  0.3
09 Mar 2021 16:15 Bamaga Australia  0.3
09 Mar 2021 16:15 Cape York Australia  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Samarai Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Sidudu Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Magesina Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Sideia I Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Tegerauna Mission Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Bedauna Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Alotau Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Daio Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Toulie Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Kaloi Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Awaiama Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Aigubu Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Iapoa Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Kilakilana School Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Piori Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Wapulamutana Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Lelehudi Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Hiliwau Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Gaduda Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Kasabanalua Papua New Guinea  0.3
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Hewiia Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:15 Broadmount Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:15 Port Alma Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 East C Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Hehego Mission Papua New Guinea  0.2
09 Mar 2021 15:45 Ok Village Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Pihigole Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Mufuiuwabwahibiga Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Paligele Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Kurada Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Babagai Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 07:30 Cardwell Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 20:45 Lawadi Papua New Guinea  0.2
09 Mar 2021 08:45 Running Creek Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:15 Pallarenda Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:15 Belgian Gardens Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:15 Townsville Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:15 Oonoonba Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:15 Cluden Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:15 Oolbun Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Keppel Sands Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 07:15 Halifax Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 07:15 Cassady Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 20:45 Taeaknabululu Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Barabara Villages Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Bunama Mission Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Carstairs Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Jarvisfield Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Rita Island Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:30 Rollingstone Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:30 Kinduro Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 07:45 Moongobulla Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:15 Coowonga Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:15 Coorooman Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:15 Emu Park Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Dundowran Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Urraween Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Point Vernon Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Kawungan Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Pialba Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Scarness Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Torquay Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Urangan Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 14:30 Bingham Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:45 Alva Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 08:15 Lucinda Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 13:00 Farnborough Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 13:00 Yeppoon Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:15 Hekampan Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:15 Tagula Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:15 Griffin Point Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:15 Madaua Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 06:15 Bwagimogimo Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 11:45 Tanby Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 11:45 Kinka Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 07:45 Coolbie Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 07:45 Mutarnee Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 17:30 Kalarka Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 17:30 Clairview Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 17:30 Saint Lawrence Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Elalie Australia  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Wedau Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Divari Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Lavora Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Topura Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Ginaivuna Papua New Guinea  0.2
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Kasikasi Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 16:30 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 16:45 Carmila Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Iwai Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Garuahi Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 07:30 Lower Tully Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Taupota Number 2 Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Gili Gili Corrective Institution Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Maiwara Number 1 Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Guguepo Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Ginewa Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 07:45 Mookarra Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 07:45 Bowen Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 07:45 Yumbabullo Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:00 South Mission Beach Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:15 Waikaiuna Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 08:30 Pantava Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 08:30 Rambuso Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:15 Sibonai Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:15 Badilai Papua New Guinea  0.1
09 Mar 2021 08:45 Aloszville Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:45 Merinda Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:45 Delta Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:45 Bootooloo Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:45 Inveroona Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:45 Queens Beach Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Ho New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Meomo New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Houailou New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Ouakaya New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Poro New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Kouaoua New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 11:00 Seventeen Seventy Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Elasi Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Innisfail Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Wynnum Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Manly Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Capalaba Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Birkdale Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Wellington Point Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Ormiston Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Thornlands Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Cleveland Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Alberton Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Carbrook Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Raby Bay Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Gilberton Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Redland Bay Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Victoria Point Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Woongoolba Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Steiglitz Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Dunwich Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Wallen Wallen Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 14:45 Canalpin Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Benowa Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Gold Coast Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Southport Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Surfers Paradise Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Broadbeach Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 West Burleigh Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Burleigh Heads Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Tumbulgum Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Piggabeen Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Bilambil Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 North Tumbulgum Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Palm Beach Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Currumbin Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Tugun Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Terranora Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Bilinga Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Stotts Creek Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Tweed Heads Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Coolangatta Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Kingscliff-Fingal Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Cudgen Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Chinderah Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Kingscliff Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 20:15 Ayton Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 09:30 Elim Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Ometteux New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Ponerihouen New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Bayes New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Mou New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Moneo New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 11:45 Port Bundaberg Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 11:45 The Grange Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 11:45 Pemberton Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 11:45 Bargara Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 11:45 Elliott Heads Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 08:00 Seaforth Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Poindimie New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:15 Woodgate Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:00 Southend Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 10:45 Mossman Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 10:45 Miallo Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 10:45 Wonga Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 10:45 Port Douglas Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 08:00 Banana Pocket Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 08:00 Lethebrook Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 08:00 Conway Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 08:00 Midgeton Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 10:30 Hockley Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Trinity Beach Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Barron Falls Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Freshwater Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Yorkeys Knob Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Stratford Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Woree Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Edge Hill Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Cairns Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:15 Cooktown Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:00 Gladstone Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:00 Toolooa Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:00 Parsons Point Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:00 Benaraby Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:00 Boyne Island Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Deeral Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 05:45 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Iakini Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 21:00 Hatulawalai Papua New Guinea  0.1
08 Mar 2021 09:00 Cannon Valley Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 09:00 Windermere Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Buxton Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Burrum Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:45 Traviston Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 06:45 Modeiwa Mission Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Habana Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Barcoo Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Alexandra Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Etowri Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Nindaroo Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Glenella Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Bucasia Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Eimeo Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 North Mackay Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Mackay Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Andergrove Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Cremorne Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Blacks Beach Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Slade Point Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:30 Amhurst Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:15 Burnett Heads Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 11:15 White Rock Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 11:15 Edmonton Australia  0.1
09 Mar 2021 11:15 Kamma Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:00 Toogoom Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 11:00 Bustard Head Australia  0.1
08 Mar 2021 20:30 Keakalo Papua New Guinea  0.1
08 Mar 2021 20:30 Gogsiba Papua New Guinea  0.1
08 Mar 2021 20:30 Gadaisu Papua New Guinea  0.1
08 Mar 2021 20:30 Bona Bona I Papua New Guinea  0.1
08 Mar 2021 20:30 Auneri Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 15:45 Red Rock Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 15:45 Wooli Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:15 Moore Park Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 12:15 Fairymead Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 15:45 Avondale Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 09:00 Saint Helens Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Taffy Islet Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 17:00 Alligator Creek Australia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 07:15 Ipulai Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 07:15 Brumer Is Papua New Guinea  0.1
07 Mar 2021 08:00 Touho New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 08:00 Kokengone New Caledonia  0.1
07 Mar 2021 08:00 Saint-Denis New Caledonia  0.1