Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21
in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (06 Mar 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 0.7 m 189 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 349 km/h 1.1 m 1134 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormVanuatu, New Caledonia26454
+
Vanuatu4365 
New Caledonia22089 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 03 Mar 2021 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 03 Mar 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Mar 2021 12:00 194 -
- - - - - Vanuatu, New Caledonia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

1134 mm

Up to 260 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmVanuatu16599 
250-500 mmVanuatu50648 
100-250 mmVanuatu192752 
50-100 mmPapua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia57011
+
Papua New Guinea7557 
Solomon Islands41473 
Vanuatu6938 
New Caledonia1043 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 01 Mar 2021 00:00 157 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 2 01 Mar 2021 06:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Mar 2021 12:00 81 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Mar 2021 18:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 02 Mar 2021 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 02 Mar 2021 06:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Mar 2021 12:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Mar 2021 18:00 136 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 03 Mar 2021 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 03 Mar 2021 06:00 210 -
- - - - - Vanuatu
Blue 11 03 Mar 2021 12:00 668 260 thousand
- - Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Pam, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 06 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Pam New Caledonia  0.7
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Balaide New Caledonia  0.7
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Saint-Paul New Caledonia  0.7
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Pouebo New Caledonia  0.6
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Yambe New Caledonia  0.6
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Diahoue New Caledonia  0.6
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Colnett New Caledonia  0.6
04 Mar 2021 08:45 Carmila Australia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 08:45 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 13:00 Banana Pocket Australia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 13:00 Lethebrook Australia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 13:00 Cannon Valley Australia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 13:00 Windermere Australia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 13:00 Conway Australia  0.5
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Tiabet New Caledonia  0.5
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Poum-Plage New Caledonia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Midgeton Australia  0.5
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Arama New Caledonia  0.5
04 Mar 2021 07:00 Broadmount Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 07:00 Port Alma Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Habana Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Barcoo Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Alexandra Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Te Kowai Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Etowri Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Nindaroo Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Rosella Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Chelona Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Glenella Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Bakers Creek Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Bucasia Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Eimeo Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 North Mackay Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Mackay Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Andergrove Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Cremorne Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Blacks Beach Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Slade Point Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Amhurst Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Hay Point Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Taffy Islet Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:30 Alligator Creek Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 11:45 Munbura Australia  0.4
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Houone New Caledonia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 12:00 Seaforth Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 08:45 Elalie Australia  0.4
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Poum New Caledonia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 13:00 Saint Helens Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 08:45 Kalarka Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 08:45 Clairview Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 05:15 Coowonga Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 05:15 Farnborough Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 05:15 Coorooman Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 05:15 Yeppoon Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 05:15 Tanby Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 05:15 Kinka Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 05:15 Emu Park Australia  0.4
04 Mar 2021 06:45 Keppel Sands Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 06:15 Gladstone Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 06:15 Toolooa Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 06:15 Parsons Point Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 06:15 Benaraby Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 06:15 Boyne Island Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 10:30 Cardwell Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 09:00 Saint Lawrence Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Merinda Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Delta Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Bootooloo Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Inveroona Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Queens Beach Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Bowen Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:45 Yumbabullo Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 14:00 Airlie Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 10:15 Lower Tully Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 20:30 Carstairs Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 20:30 Jarvisfield Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 20:30 Rita Island Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Halifax Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Cassady Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 12:30 Mookarra Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 13:30 Cannonvale Australia  0.3
05 Mar 2021 08:45 Alva Australia  0.3
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Paagoumene New Caledonia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 12:45 Coolbie Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 12:45 Mutarnee Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 12:15 Rollingstone Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 12:15 Kinduro Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 09:45 South Mission Beach Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 12:45 Moongobulla Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 08:15 Lucinda Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 09:30 Oolbun Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Pallarenda Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Belgian Gardens Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Townsville Australia  0.3
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Oonoonba Australia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 09:30 Cluden Australia  0.3
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Pairome New Caledonia  0.3
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Panane New Caledonia  0.3
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Mouane New Caledonia  0.3
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Ono New Caledonia  0.3
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Wala New Caledonia  0.3
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Bweo New Caledonia  0.3
04 Mar 2021 04:00 Southend Australia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Ouanache New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Paola New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Vieux Tuho New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Touho New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Kokengone New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:00 Kaala-Gomen New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:00 Ouaco New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Koumac New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Ho New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Meomo New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Houailou New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Ouakaya New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Poro New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Kouaoua New Caledonia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 10:00 Innisfail Australia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Tipindje New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Pindache New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Voh New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Oundjo New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Pinjen New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Ouenguip New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Ouanpoues New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Hienghene New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Saint-Denis New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Poindimie New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Ometteux New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Bayes New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Tarbeville New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Panie New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Nepoui New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Ponerihouen New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Mou New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Moneo New Caledonia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 10:30 Mossman Australia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 10:30 Miallo Australia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 10:30 Wonga Australia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 10:30 Port Douglas Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 22:45 Deeral Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 22:45 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Station Ouaneko New Caledonia  0.2
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Station de Beaupre New Caledonia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Trinity Beach Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Barron Falls Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Freshwater Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Yorkeys Knob Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Stratford Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Woree Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Edge Hill Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 White Rock Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Edmonton Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Cairns Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Kamma Australia  0.2
03 Mar 2021 12:00 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 04:15 Bustard Head Australia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 04:15 Seventeen Seventy Australia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 10:30 Hockley Australia  0.2
04 Mar 2021 10:15 Ayton Australia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Gouaro New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Canala New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Kuine New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Ouasse New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Nakety New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Bourail New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Nessadiou New Caledonia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:45 Pemberton Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:45 Elliott Heads Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:45 Woodgate Australia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:45 Thio New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Moindou New Caledonia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:00 Avondale Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:00 Moore Park Australia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Mouly New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Lekia New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Fayaoue New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Wadrilla New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Ognahu New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Wegnec St-Joseph New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:30 Ognat New Caledonia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Wynnum Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Manly Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Capalaba Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Birkdale Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Wellington Point Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Ormiston Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Thornlands Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Cleveland Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Alberton Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Carbrook Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Raby Bay Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Gilberton Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Redland Bay Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Victoria Point Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Woongoolba Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Steiglitz Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Dunwich Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Wallen Wallen Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 06:30 Canalpin Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 03:45 Fairymead Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 03:45 Port Bundaberg Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 03:45 The Grange Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 03:45 Burnett Heads Australia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Saint-Gabriel New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Saint Roch New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Bouloupari New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Ngoye New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Petit-Borindi New Caledonia  0.1
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Samarai Papua New Guinea  0.1
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Sidudu Papua New Guinea  0.1
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Magesina Papua New Guinea  0.1
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Sideia I Papua New Guinea  0.1
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Tegerauna Mission Papua New Guinea  0.1
03 Mar 2021 21:15 Bedauna Papua New Guinea  0.1
05 Mar 2021 03:15 Bargara Australia  0.1
04 Mar 2021 10:30 Cooktown Australia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Teouta New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Nde New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 11:15 Paita New Caledonia  0.1
06 Mar 2021 12:00 Tomo New Caledonia  0.1
04 Mar 2021 10:00 Elim Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:30 Buxton Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:30 Burrum Australia  0.1
05 Mar 2021 04:30 Traviston Australia  0.1
04 Mar 2021 07:30 Pihigole Papua New Guinea  0.1