Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21
in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (28 Feb 21:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 83 km/h 0.4 m 294 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 202 km/h 0.9 m 1018 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

202 km/h

Up to 3 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia2628 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 Feb 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia2098 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Australia98512
+
Papua New Guinea6517 
Solomon Islands14083 
Australia73037 
Vanuatu4875 
50-100 mmPapua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Australia, Vanuatu472869
+
Papua New Guinea63491 
Solomon Islands48915 
Australia348898 
Vanuatu11565 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 Feb 2021 12:00 531 100 thousand
- - - Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Australia, Vanuatu




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Banana Pocket, Australia. This height is estimated for 28 Feb 2021 21:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Feb 2021 21:30 Banana Pocket Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 21:30 Lethebrook Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 21:30 Conway Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 21:30 Midgeton Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Carstairs Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Jarvisfield Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Alva Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Rita Island Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 21:00 Cannon Valley Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 21:00 Windermere Australia  0.4
28 Feb 2021 19:45 Oolbun Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 21:30 Carmila Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 21:30 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 20:45 Cardwell Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Pallarenda Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Belgian Gardens Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Townsville Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Oonoonba Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Cluden Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:45 Halifax Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:45 Cassady Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Seaforth Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Habana Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Barcoo Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Etowri Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Nindaroo Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Bucasia Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Eimeo Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Andergrove Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Blacks Beach Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Slade Point Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Amhurst Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Taffy Islet Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Alligator Creek Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Hay Point Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 21:45 Saint Helens Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:00 Lucinda Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Lower Tully Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Coolbie Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Mutarnee Australia  0.3
28 Feb 2021 20:30 Elalie Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 21:45 Kalarka Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 21:45 Clairview Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 21:45 Saint Lawrence Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Merinda Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Delta Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Bootooloo Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Inveroona Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Queens Beach Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Bowen Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Yumbabullo Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Moongobulla Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Kinduro Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Alexandra Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Te Kowai Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Rosella Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Chelona Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Glenella Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Bakers Creek Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 North Mackay Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Mackay Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Cremorne Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Rollingstone Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:45 South Mission Beach Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Munbura Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Samarai Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Sidudu Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Magesina Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Sideia I Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Tegerauna Mission Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Bedauna Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 21:00 Mookarra Australia  0.2
01 Mar 2021 00:00 Broadmount Australia  0.2
01 Mar 2021 00:00 Port Alma Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Kilakilana School Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Kasabanalua Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Lelehudi Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 21:30 Airlie Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Alotau Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Daio Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Toulie Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Kaloi Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Awaiama Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Aigubu Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Iapoa Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Piori Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Wapulamutana Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Hiliwau Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Gaduda Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Hewiia Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 21:00 Cannonvale Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 East C Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Pihigole Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 20:15 Running Creek Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Hehego Mission Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Innisfail Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Mufuiuwabwahibiga Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Paligele Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:45 Coowonga Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:45 Farnborough Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:45 Coorooman Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:45 Yeppoon Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:45 Tanby Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:45 Kinka Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:45 Emu Park Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Trinity Beach Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Barron Falls Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Freshwater Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Yorkeys Knob Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Stratford Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Woree Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Edge Hill Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Cairns Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Lawadi Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Kurada Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Babagai Papua New Guinea  0.2
28 Feb 2021 19:15 White Rock Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Edmonton Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Kamma Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Aloszville Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Ayton Australia  0.1
01 Mar 2021 00:00 Keppel Sands Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 18:15 Deeral Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Taeaknabululu Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 18:45 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Barabara Villages Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Bunama Mission Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Mossman Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Miallo Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Wonga Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:30 Port Douglas Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 19:15 Hockley Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 18:30 Elim Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:00 Bustard Head Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:00 Seventeen Seventy Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Kasikasi Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Pemberton Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Elliott Heads Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Woodgate Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 22:45 Southend Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Keakalo Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Gogsiba Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Gadaisu Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Bona Bona I Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 16:30 Auneri Papua New Guinea  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Gladstone Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Toolooa Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Parsons Point Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Benaraby Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:15 Boyne Island Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Buxton Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Burrum Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Traviston Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 18:00 Cooktown Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Toogoom Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Dundowran Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Urraween Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Point Vernon Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Kawungan Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Pialba Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Scarness Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Torquay Australia  0.1
28 Feb 2021 23:30 Urangan Australia  0.1