Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
02 Feb 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (02 Feb 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.5 m 18 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 86 km/h 1.3 m 296 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

86 km/h

Up to 8 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia7,960 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmAustralia253 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia15,074,996
+
Indonesia15,052,282 
Australia22,714 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 200 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Point Samson, Australia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Feb 2021 06:00 Point Samson Australia  0.5
02 Feb 2021 06:00 Cossack Australia  0.5
02 Feb 2021 06:30 Dampier Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 06:30 Karratha Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 06:15 Wickham Australia  0.4
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Mardie Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 06:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 08:00 Onslow Australia  0.3
02 Feb 2021 03:00 Milyeannup Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Kekatang Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Menango Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Tandjungkarang Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Telukbetung Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Tarahan Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Guring Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Sumur Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Babakancibeber Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Kolitjaah Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Tjiteureup Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Labuhan Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 05:30 Kaduperasi Indonesia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 00:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
02 Feb 2021 08:00 Glenroy Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 03:15 Warroora Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:45 Augusta Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 09:15 Learmonth Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 07:45 Cardabia Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 03:15 Gnaraloo Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 15:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 09:15 Exmouth Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 07:15 Quobba Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 10:15 Carrarang Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 10:15 Tamala Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Bandjaragung Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 10:30 Kalbarri Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 09:45 Vasse Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 09:45 Broadwater Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 09:45 Busselton Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 09:45 Wonnerup Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 09:45 Ludlow Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 15:45 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:15 Gregory Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:15 Lynton Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Waiharoe Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 04:30 Karangberak Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:30 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:30 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Djate Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Djangdjangan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Puteran Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:45 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 02:15 Horrocks Australia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:15 Umbulan Pepanggar Indonesia  0.1
02 Feb 2021 05:15 Kalianda Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:30 Bayeman Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:30 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:30 Gending Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Pringgabaja Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Lombok Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:30 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1