Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
04 Feb 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (06 Feb 03:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 1.0 m 21 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 94 km/h 1.0 m 466 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 270 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia267,654 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 03 Feb 2021 18:00 61 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 15 04 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 04 Feb 2021 06:00 79 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 17 04 Feb 2021 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmAustralia18 
50-100 mmAustralia253 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 19 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 20 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 19 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 03 Feb 2021 18:00 17 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 15 04 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 04 Feb 2021 06:00 22 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 17 04 Feb 2021 12:00 290 Few people
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Hamelin Pool, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 03:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 03:30 Hamelin Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 00:45 Carrarang Australia  0.9
06 Feb 2021 00:45 Tamala Australia  0.9
06 Feb 2021 03:15 Gladstone Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 01:45 Nanga Australia  0.7
06 Feb 2021 01:15 Useless Loop Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 01:30 Shark Bay Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 01:30 Monkey Mia Australia  0.6
05 Feb 2021 14:15 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 00:15 Denham Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 15:30 Gregory Australia  0.4
06 Feb 2021 15:15 Kalbarri Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 00:45 Denison Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 00:45 Port Denison Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 00:45 Dongara Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:00 Greenough Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:00 Illawong Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:00 Geraldton Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2021 01:00 Horrocks Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 01:15 Coolimba Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2021 15:45 Lynton Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Leeman Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Green Head Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Jurien Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 07:30 Point Samson Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 07:30 Cossack Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 07:15 Wickham Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 12:15 Carnarvon Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 07:45 Dampier Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 07:45 Karratha Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Cervantes Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:30 Vasse Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:30 Broadwater Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:30 Busselton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:30 Wonnerup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:30 Ludlow Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 12:00 Gunyulgup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 12:00 Yallingup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 12:00 Dunsborough Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 12:00 Quindalup Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 02:15 Quobba Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 13:00 Mardie Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:45 Bunbury Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:45 Binningup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:45 Myalup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:45 Picton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:45 Eaton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:45 Burragenup Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 11:45 Australind Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 12:00 Dalyellup Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 02:00 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 12:15 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 15:30 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 15:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Lancelin Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Falcon Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Mandurah Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Warnbro Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Peelhurst Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Singleton Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Karnup Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 16:15 Learmonth Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 23:15 Onslow Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 14:45 Cardabia Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Seabird Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 16:00 Exmouth Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Safety Bay Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Rockingham Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Guilderton Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 14:30 Glenroy Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 14:15 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 13:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:15 Two Rocks Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:15 Yanchep Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 14:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Coogee Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Spearwood Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Wattleup Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Fremantle Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 North Fremantle Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Mosman Park Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Cottesloe Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 East Fremantle Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Peppermint Grove Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Swanbourne Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Claremont Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Bicton Australia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 21:30 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
04 Feb 2021 21:30 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:00 Quinns Rock Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:30 North Beach Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:30 Scarborough Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 09:45 Mullalloo Beach Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2021 10:45 Gracetown Australia  0.1