Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
03 Feb 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.0 m (06 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 61 km/h 1.0 m 17 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 86 km/h 1.3 m 296 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

86 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia14,793 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia940,402
+
Indonesia940,153 
Australia249 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Australia37,562,400
+
Indonesia37,561,575 
Australia825 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 16 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 18 Few people - - - - - - Australia
Blue 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 179 940 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Hamelin Pool, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Hamelin Australia  1.0
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Gladstone Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Carrarang Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Tamala Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Nanga Australia  0.8
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Shark Bay Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2021 00:00 Monkey Mia Australia  0.6
05 Feb 2021 23:45 Denham Australia  0.5
05 Feb 2021 23:45 Useless Loop Australia  0.5
05 Feb 2021 22:15 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.4
03 Feb 2021 20:45 Point Samson Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:45 Cossack Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:30 Dampier Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 20:30 Karratha Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 22:00 Mardie Australia  0.3
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Wickham Australia  0.3
04 Feb 2021 06:45 East Lewis I Australia  0.3
05 Feb 2021 22:30 Carnarvon Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 18:45 Learmonth Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 21:00 Onslow Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 13:15 Quobba Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 04:30 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 20:30 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
04 Feb 2021 18:45 Exmouth Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 20:45 Glenroy Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 15:45 Ningaloo Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 03:15 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 15:45 Cardabia Australia  0.2
05 Feb 2021 03:15 Warroora Australia  0.2
03 Feb 2021 15:30 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Guring Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 10:00 Kota Agung Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Djate Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Djangdjangan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 11:00 Puteran Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Sumbawa Besar Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Idjok Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Chilachap Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Adipala Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Binangoen Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:30 Laboean Mapin Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:30 Alas Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:30 Pernang Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:30 Utan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Lepeloang Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Sembelie Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Soengian Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Miro Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Arongsantek Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Pekat Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Pato Pedoe Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Pringgabaja Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Lombok Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:45 Ajah Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Bayan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Desa Anjar Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Salangan Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 08:45 Soemoerboengkar Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:15 Tandjung Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:15 Soeroengdjoekoeng Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:00 Mangsit Indonesia  0.1
03 Feb 2021 09:00 Pamenang Indonesia  0.1