Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for DELTA-20
in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands
05 Oct 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DELTA-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Oct 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.6 m 86 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 2.5 m 412 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormCuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands52,991
+
Cuba187 
Mexico181 
Cayman Islands52,623 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Oct 2020 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 2 05 Oct 2020 00:00 155 -
- - - - - Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Jamaica, Honduras, Nicaragua1,134,756
+
Mexico91,072 
Jamaica321,493 
Honduras278 
Nicaragua721,913 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia9,272,425
+
United States37,421 
Cuba591 
Mexico2,659,318 
Jamaica1,676,863 
Honduras856,106 
Nicaragua3,967,936 
Colombia74,190 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Oct 2020 18:00 147 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Oct 2020 00:00 267 1.1 million
- - - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Jamaica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Colombia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Mina de Oro, Mexico. This height is estimated for 05 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Mina de Oro Mexico  0.6
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Cerrito Mexico  0.6
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Chabihau Mexico  0.6
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Telchac Puerto Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Chisahcab Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Campeche Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Balantanche Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Pixoy Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Neyac Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.5
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Chelem Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Progreso Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Rio Lagartos Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Valton Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Guerrero Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Hoquel Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Champoton Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Haltunchen Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Sisal Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Seybaplaya Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Real de Salinas Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Chenkan Mexico  0.4
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Celestum Mexico  0.3
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Noham Mexico  0.3
05 Oct 2020 06:00 El Cuyo Mexico  0.3
05 Oct 2020 01:00 Arrozal Mexico  0.3
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Sabancuy Mexico  0.3
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Paso Real Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Victoria Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Balchacah Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Majana Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Guanimar Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:45 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Chipepte Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 06:00 El Cajio Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Hesperides United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Nairn United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Empire United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Sunrise United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Buras United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Ostrica United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Neptune United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Fort Jackson United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Boothville United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Duvic United States  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Ninayeri Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Ledakura Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Graytown Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Awastara Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Surgidero de Batabano Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Batabano Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 03:45 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Wankluma Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:45 Barra de Rio Grande Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Guasimal Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Tahuantla Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Puerto Isabel Nicaragua  0.2
05 Oct 2020 01:45 Aguas Claras Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 01:45 Almacen Cuba  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Yahurabila Honduras  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Barra de Caratasca Honduras  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Kaski Honduras  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Dapat Honduras  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Cauauira Honduras  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Tay Lirila Honduras  0.2
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Pusuaya Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Alley Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Old Harbor Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Canco Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Barra Kruta Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 06:00 Kanko Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Monte de Oro Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 San Pedro Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:15 Rio Platano Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:15 Huarta Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:15 Tusi Cocal Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Playa Caimito Cuba  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:45 Coco Haulover Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:45 Huahua Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Hualpasika Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:00 Karata Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 06:00 West Point United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:00 Wounta Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Raya Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Clubki Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Cabo Gracias Viejo Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Irlaya Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Cabo Gracias a Dios Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:00 Playa de Tasajera Cuba  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:45 Chacmuchuch Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:45 Lama Laya Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:45 Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:00 Caserio Pescadores Cuba  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:30 Uhi Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 05:00 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Oak Grove United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:30 Tuapi Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:30 Crucira Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 05:45 Constance Beach United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 05:45 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 05:45 Holly Beach United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 05:45 Cameron United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Hidalgo Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Francisco I. Madero Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 05:15 Cheniere Au Tigre United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:30 Tasbapauni Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:30 Set Net Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:00 Breton United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:15 Nueva Gerona Cuba  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:15 Presidio Modelo Cuba  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:45 Limera Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:45 Balfate Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:45 Rio Esteban Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 05:45 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Mound Grove United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Ormond-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Daytona Beach United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Holly Hill United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Ellinor Village United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Ortona United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Seabreeze United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 South Daytona United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Daytona Beach Shores United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Allandale United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Halifax Estates United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 04:15 Wilbur-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Indian Pass United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Thirteen Mile United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Odena United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Eleven Mile United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Nine Mile United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Tilton United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Franklin United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:15 Apalachicola United States  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:00 Kukra Hill Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:00 Haulover Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:00 Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua  0.1
05 Oct 2020 02:30 Port Royal Jamaica  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:45 Miranda Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 01:45 Betulia Honduras  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:30 Corozo Guatemala  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:30 Cabeza de Vaca Guatemala  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:30 Baranca Belize  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:30 San Juan Guatemala  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:30 Cocoli Guatemala  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:30 Buena Vista Guatemala  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:30 Livingston Guatemala  0.1
05 Oct 2020 00:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:15 Julian Cuba  0.1
05 Oct 2020 03:15 La Bajada Cuba  0.1