Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
24 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (24 Feb 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 1.6 m 75 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 104 km/h 1.6 m 389 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

104 km/h

Up to 3 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia2,606 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia240,586
+
Indonesia207 
Papua New Guinea34,162 
Australia206,217 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia1,515,695
+
Indonesia43,232 
Papua New Guinea1,212,017 
Australia260,446 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 165 9 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 18:00 162 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 255 240 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 24 Feb 2020 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Karumba Australia  1.6
24 Feb 2020 12:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 13:45 Bing Bong Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 19:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 13:00 Alyangula Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 18:30 Kulinchin Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 19:45 Mapoon Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 17:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.5
24 Feb 2020 17:00 Mari Papua New Guinea  0.5
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Cowel Creek Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 16:30 Seisia Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 16:30 Bamaga Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 16:30 Cape York Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Hammond I Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Port Kennedy Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Sarire Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Tamarike Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 13:30 Caburinga Village Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Matara Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Urum Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Merauke Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Daub Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Anansai Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:00 Wendu Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 14:45 Thundulda Australia  0.4
25 Feb 2020 09:15 Eyre Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 13:45 Gove Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 13:45 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 13:45 Yirrkala Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:45 Kobiem Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:45 Okaba Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:45 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:45 Alakoe Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:45 Alatepi Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 06:00 Soeam Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 14:15 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 14:30 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 The Palms Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Larrakeyah Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Fannie Bay Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Parap Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Darwin Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Nightcliff Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Ludmilla Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Bagot Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Leanyer Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 17:15 Berrimah Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 14:15 Selemit Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:00 Tor Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 15:00 Wan Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 15:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Per Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Agats Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 03:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 03:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:30 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 01:00 Birab Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 19:15 Boigu Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 19:15 Bugi Papua New Guinea  0.2
24 Feb 2020 19:15 Dauan Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Amagoa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Segero Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Tugara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Dibiri Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Orapoi Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Oropai Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Gesco Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Tirere Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Dameramuda Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Bina No 1 Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 08:15 Maipani Papua New Guinea  0.1
24 Feb 2020 09:45 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.1
24 Feb 2020 09:45 Saibai Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 10:00 Pallarenda Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 10:00 Belgian Gardens Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 10:00 Townsville Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 10:00 Oonoonba Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 10:00 Cluden Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 10:00 Oolbun Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:00 Mutarnee Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:00 Moongobulla Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:00 Rollingstone Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:00 Kinduro Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:15 Halifax Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:15 Cassady Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:45 Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:45 Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:45 Mirimairau Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:45 Uramu I Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:45 Kaivu Papua New Guinea  0.1
24 Feb 2020 00:15 Aloszville Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:30 Waidoro Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:30 Kadawa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:30 Ture Ture Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:30 Boze Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:30 Ume Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:45 Hamlet of Togo Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:45 Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.1
24 Feb 2020 00:15 Running Creek Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:30 Lucinda Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Iasa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Aibinio Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Ipisia Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Agobara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Samari Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Oromosapuo Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:00 Umuda I Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 05:15 Thangoo Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 06:00 Daru Papua New Guinea  0.1